All in EV

  • 11 replies
    • prevolsek
      prevolsek
      Silver
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 282
      Anyone?
    • scscpoker
      scscpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.06.2010 Posts: 121
      If u have 74% chance to win at some point and u go allin, 74% of pot belongs to you, but in real you just win 100% of pot or 0% of pot
    • prevolsek
      prevolsek
      Silver
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 282
      So if my winnings are higher then my all in EV I'm being lucky? I'm talking abouth the graph on PT
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by prevolsek
      So if my winnings are higher then my all in EV I'm being lucky? I'm talking abouth the graph on PT
      It just means you are making really good decisions in large pots. Since the EV is only calculated at the point you go all-in it has very little to do with luck.

      To put it another way ... any assumption you are attempting to make from that graph is wrong.
    • prevolsek
      prevolsek
      Silver
      Joined: 18.02.2009 Posts: 282
      Tnx
    • Fladdermouse
      Fladdermouse
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 2,867
      Originally posted by tokyoaces
      Originally posted by prevolsek
      So if my winnings are higher then my all in EV I'm being lucky? I'm talking abouth the graph on PT
      It just means you are making really good decisions in large pots. Since the EV is only calculated at the point you go all-in it has very little to do with luck.

      To put it another way ... any assumption you are attempting to make from that graph is wrong.
      It does not have anything to do with right/wrong decisions. Even if you are 90% of the times way behind when you go all-in (without having the right equity), you still can run a lot above EV. If you win the hand 15% of the time, you are running above EV, which does not mean that your call was right.

      In fact the difference between your EV-line and winnings-line only shows if you have been lucky or unlucky with the cards that still had to come, after you went all-in.
      So if your winnings are higher than your all-in EV, you have been lucky after you went all-in.
    • dashe
      dashe
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2009 Posts: 26
      I thought I knew what EV is but now I'm confused after this happened:
      my hand: 87QQ
      opponent: 4486
      Flop: 48Q turn 9 river 5

      No flush draws. We go all in on flop, I have 89.5% equity, he was short stacked.
      I won 38bb and EV shows -8bb

      So I got lucky here ????
    • scscpoker
      scscpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.06.2010 Posts: 121
      Originally posted by dashe
      I thought I knew what EV is but now I'm confused after this happened:
      my hand: 87QQ
      opponent: 4486
      Flop: 48Q turn 9 river 5

      No flush draws. We go all in on flop, I have 89.5% equity, he was short stacked.
      I won 38bb and EV shows -8bb

      So I got lucky here ????
      It means u have won 8 more blinds than u should win by your equity, but u cant win exactly 30bb because only one player wins at a time. If u play with same equity 10 times, few times u will be "lucky by some blinds" and few times "unlucky by some blinds", so after many games the "average" will be seen on green line too
    • dashe
      dashe
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.04.2009 Posts: 26
      understood ! thanks
    • tokyoaces
      tokyoaces
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      Originally posted by Fladdermouse
      So if your winnings are higher than your all-in EV, you have been lucky after you went all-in.
      However, most people assume that it shows that they shoulda-coulda-woulda won some money. So they mistakenly believe that they are owed this amount of money in the future.

      "Lucky" is not some stat for your tracking software. Leave that for the fish.
    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      Originally posted by tokyoaces
      Originally posted by Fladdermouse
      So if your winnings are higher than your all-in EV, you have been lucky after you went all-in.
      However, most people assume that it shows that they shoulda-coulda-woulda won some money. So they mistakenly believe that they are owed this amount of money in the future.

      "Lucky" is not some stat for your tracking software. Leave that for the fish.
      Actually, EV is exactly what they should have won in the past, as is expressed if you spell it out as expected value.

      However, past results doesn't have any influence on future EV. I think that was your point.