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[NL20-NL50] nl50 sh 33 vs donk on paired bd

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($17.50)
      BB ($63.45)
      UTG ($64.85)
      UTG+1 ($62.35)
      Hero ($53)
      BTN ($51.85)

      Dealt to Hero 3:club: 3:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.75, fold, fold, BB calls $1.25

      FLOP ($3.75) Q:diamond: Q:spade: 2:diamond:

      BB bets $2, Hero calls $2

      TURN ($7.75) Q:diamond: Q:spade: 2:diamond: 8:heart:

      BB bets $4, Hero calls $4

      RIVER ($15.75) Q:diamond: Q:spade: 2:diamond: 8:heart: T:spade:

      BB checks, Hero bets $10.50, BB folds

      Hero shows 3:club: 3:spade:

      Hero wins $15

      villain is 28/15/1, after only 56 hands (otherwise unknown). What do you think of this line?

      I was thinking that Qx very rarely donks the flop since I can fold whereas at least if he checks he picks up my cbet. So I think most likely Holdings for donking are flush draws, low/medium pocket pairs and Ax hands that want to get to showdown/defeat my cbet.

      I don't think we can raise on the flop (since again we would hardly ever raise Qx here) but I think we can maybe call with the intention of taking it away later?

      I don't think the turn changes much, (although it increases the stakes) so again I think we may be able to call using the same logic. when villain checks the River it seems to me he never has a Q. So the question is whether or not to bet. Obviously we are ahead of Ax and busted flush draws, which is an argument for checking behind. But of course we lose to 33-99. I think maybe we look a lot like we have the Q ourselves and so I think we probably maximise value by betting, but I'm not 100% sure.

      Any thoughts?

  • 2 replies
    • N0pr3s3n7
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,296
      since he is never calling the river with a hand that you are beating it's though.But your arguments for him having 33-99 or pure 8x are good and he will probably fold all these hands.Next time i'd say you can make your life easier with raising turn because he is also folding everything you said and you get extra value from flushdraws.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      he is likely c/c river hands that beat your 33 so I don´t really see any value betting river, so I´d take my free showdown
      also since it is quite hard to go to showdown with 33 and likely he doesn´t have anything on that flop I´d raise flop to 6$
      Even with 88 I think it is very hard to b/c that board if you raise and he should also have enough times just air and you take pot down a lot of times