[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH AQ ip, mwp - call down on scary board

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,400
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($52.25)
      BB ($57.80)
      UTG ($50)
      CO ($50.75)
      Hero ($70.20)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: A:spade:

      UTG raises to $1.75, fold, Hero calls $1.75, fold, BB calls $1.25

      FLOP ($5.50) A:club: 2:spade: K:club:

      BB checks, UTG bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, BB folds

      TURN ($12.50) A:club: 2:spade: K:club: 9:spade:

      UTG bets $8, Hero calls $8

      RIVER ($28.50) A:club: 2:spade: K:club: 9:spade: K:heart:

      UTG bets $21.50, Hero calls $21.50

      villain is a decent regular: 20/19/4, 187 hands. Raise from ep only 5%(sample 22). No special reads. Continuation bet 80, turn continuation bet 67.

      can't decide whether my call down is okay here. I am already a bit nervous on the turn since villain continuation bet into two people on the flop and this really hits his under the gun raising range hard. On the other hand he can expect us to 3b AK/AA/KK preflop a lot of the time and so (other than 22) it's quite hard for me to have a really strong hand here, in which case it may be reasonable for him to try to barrel us off even strong Ax hands like we have.

      On the River I think it's really difficult. I almost folded. But I think the call may be okay. There are only 4 combinations of AK possible now. And I don't think he would necessarily barrel the turn with KQ since he has sdv. So it seems to me his range is heavily polarised. Is that reasonable?

      Again, it's hard for me to have a K here myself, since I probably fold KQ on the turn and if he knows this he can definitely try to get me off my Ax hands.

      What do you think? Thanks
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you´re mostly against AK/22/AA/99 or some kind of bluff
      So calldown can´t really be that bad especially since I don´t expect him to barrel too many times Kx hands on the turn
      I also don´t think he is betting that big with Ax hands and would expect him also just to c/c or bet less, so in general you´re at thought situation
      I usually tend to call down as strong hand as AQ, but I think fold is also reasonable. Depends how often you think that player would 3-barrel semibluff you on that board
      And strange thing is that AQ basically means KQ at that spot and I doubt you´re folding KQ on the river, so at that case I like call more than fold