[NL20-NL50] nl50 SH KK - set on flop, river straightens and flushes

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($54)
      BB ($50)
      Hero ($106)
      UTG+1 ($50)
      CO ($80.05)
      BTN ($59.35)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: K:club:

      Hero raises to $1.75, fold, fold, BTN calls $1.75, fold, fold

      FLOP ($4.25) T:diamond: K:heart: 4:heart:

      Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

      TURN ($9.25) T:diamond: K:heart: 4:heart: 8:diamond:

      Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7

      RIVER ($23.25) T:diamond: K:heart: 4:heart: 8:diamond: A:diamond:

      Hero bets $18.50, BTN raises to $48.10 (AI), Hero calls $29.60

      BTN wins $116

      villain is 29/22/2 after 133 hands;
      River sucks - should we fold for 3:1 odds?
      more to the point, should we even value bet?

      Thanks
  • 7 replies
    • N0pr3s3n7
      N0pr3s3n7
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,274
      JQ got there and also something you should have managed to have a look,you don't hold K of diamonds so there is a big chance he might have it to improve to backdoor flushdraw so i'd say everything that raised this river is beating you except AT which i'd say he would be inclined to just call because of your strong range there.

      Also about value betting: What do you think he can call you there ?I see only AT,KT and all hands like these or other like sets,super strong combodraws would raise at some point.So I don't think he is ever slowplaying a set on such a board or even 2 pairs.I like check/calling since he might have easily AJ/AQ/missed flushdraw or pure bluff he wanted to somehow float you,which will bet always there.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      thanks for this -- very helpful. I must admit I didn't really consider that K :diamond: was a possible holding for him given my own hand - I should have.

      Would you bet this River if it was, say A :spade: ? or do you think the same logic applies?

      Thanks again
    • N0pr3s3n7
      N0pr3s3n7
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,274
      Originally posted by Tim64
      thanks for this -- very helpful. I must admit I didn't really consider that K :diamond: was a possible holding for him given my own hand - I should have.

      Would you bet this River if it was, say A :spade: ? or do you think the same logic applies?

      Thanks again
      If the river isn't a flushy card(heart or diamond) I think it almost goes the same as in case it's A of spades you lose value only if he had KJ/KQ but i doubt he will ever call it if you bet 3/4 So i don't think there is hand which will call you down.AQ/AJ will sure call but i think he will bet himself them.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      AQ/AJ will sure call but i think he will bet himself them.


      Ok, so you mean if he had, say, A :heart: Q :heart: and river is A :spade: and we check, he is quite likely to bet since we show weakness?

      Thanks again
    • N0pr3s3n7
      N0pr3s3n7
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,274
      Originally posted by Tim64
      AQ/AJ will sure call but i think he will bet himself them.


      Ok, so you mean if he had, say, A :heart: Q :heart: and river is A :spade: and we check, he is quite likely to bet since we show weakness?

      Thanks again
      when he calls this for exampel Ah Qh he calls for the following reasons: he has these outs: 2h 3h 5h 6h 7h 8h 9h Th Jh As Ac Ad Jc Jd Js.You value bet with all these outs if you hit one of them so I meant it.He will bet there A always.He expects you to bet AK/AT/AQ/AJ and probably all hands which are strong,by checking we represent absolutely everything such as Tx,Kx maybe even low Ax so he will definitely bet with AJ/AQ/AK/AT.If it happens to be As and we check and he bets i'd be inclined to push since only JQ beats us and he may evulate himself into calling because of the odds and your strange check/all in river play.
    • DecMate
      DecMate
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 939
      i agree with n0s, i think checking is the best play on this river and mostly to check/fold, unless you value bet small so hands you beat are still able to call.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think once we bet we have to call shove, since set on that board is just too strong and consider that he is not always shoving there QJ since backdoor flushdraw got there I think we have to b&c getting these odds
      If you afraid too much QJ then c&c is also reasonable to let him bluff his busted draws or valuebet his Ax or two pair hands