Hypothetical situation

  • Poll
    • Would you fold AA in this situation?

      • 77
        Yes
        53%
      • 68
        No
        47%
      Total: 145 Votes
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Imagine this situation :
      You're in a sit'n'go tournament with 5 out of 10 players remaining and the pay-out structure is (50-30-20)

      You're in the BB with A:spade: A:diamond: and all remaining players have exactly 4000 chips remaining.

      Preflop :
      SB : 25 chips small blind
      BB : 50 chips big blind
      UTG : all-in (4000)
      UTG+1 : all-in (4000)
      BU : all-in (4000)
      SB : all-in (4000)
      BB : ???

      Do you call with your aces to get 50-70 % chance on the 50 $ payout, or do you stay out of it to be sure of second place and 30 $
      I think this is one of the only situations where folding AA preflop might possibly be EV+ :D
  • 46 replies
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi SonicXT!

      Interesting question. I'll add a poll. Feel free to discuss!

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • ciRith
      ciRith
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      Easy fold for me... I doubt that yoiu ever have more than 50% equity on average so that would be 25$ on average where when you fold you have nearly 100% of the time 30$ + the chance to get 1st too.

      30$ > 25$.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Harrington handles this problem in his HoH vol.3, and he says to call with AA and KK. SO I'll take his word for it :)
    • Xzorius
      Xzorius
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.07.2007 Posts: 44
      I wouldn't see me folding this.

      You have the best hand so laying it down just to get second place doesn't seem right to me.
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      i don't really get it, i mean what are the odds that AA is beat, 5 handed, by 3 pple?? Icm counting it's an EASY call.

      AA has +80% against kk qq etc., which are likely hands in this situation.
      AA has +85% against A anything, which are also likely hands.

      To make a long story short: I assume they pay the 2nd and 3rd placed guys in the final hand, and not the 5th place hand. And that makes this the easiest call ever, especially because of the likelyhood of domination (other pairs and aces). CALL

      oops i voted wrong, sorry im drunk, and spastic.
    • howard182
      howard182
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      Completely unrealistic scenario, but an easy fold because of the payout structure (and the deep stacks make it clearer). This does only arise in tournaments though (in somewhat less contrived situations than this, e.g. two players all in in front of you in a satellite on the bubble), to correctly fold AA preflop in a cash game you've got to see their cards. Seeing another AA who covers you makes the greatest difference of course.
    • rubysilesia
      rubysilesia
      Silver
      Joined: 03.07.2007 Posts: 351
      Easy math. We got pot equity from 40% (many suited connectors and pocket pairs) up to 65% (2 ace hands).
      Expected value:
      Call -> 0.4 * 50$ = 20$, 0.65 * 50$ = 32$
      Fold -> 30$

      By folding we get almost the same EV than in the best scenario and a slight chance to win 50$. Easy fold.
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      why are you putting them on SC?

      I'd say they're more likely on Ace hands which you have dominated etc.
      The other 2 probably on decent pocket pairs.

      Don't have the patience to wait for my computer to calculate for such an unrealistic situation, but i would go for call
    • rubysilesia
      rubysilesia
      Silver
      Joined: 03.07.2007 Posts: 351
      Because SC are the best hands against AA, as to pocket pairs it doesn't really matters if they are low or high they are dominated and play for set value mostly.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Would you go all in with suited connectors when you're so close to the money? Really, I don't see that happening...
    • degnic
      degnic
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2007 Posts: 3,953
      Originally posted by rubysilesia
      Easy math. We got pot equity from 40% (many suited connectors and pocket pairs) up to 65% (2 ace hands).
      Expected value:
      Call -> 0.4 * 50$ = 20$, 0.65 * 50$ = 32$
      Fold -> 30$

      By folding we get almost the same EV than in the best scenario and a slight chance to win 50$. Easy fold.
      if everyone has exactly same amount of chips left, you can easily end up 2nd or 3rd even if you lost the hand (as when chip amount is equal pf, the 2nd place goes to who had 2nd best hand and so on..right?)

      but I could fold it, especially if I feel like I'm better player than most of the others. Still lots of chips left and blinds relatively small, so I can play it safe and fold.
    • rubysilesia
      rubysilesia
      Silver
      Joined: 03.07.2007 Posts: 351
      You're right I didn't think about that. I don't know what they do in situation like that I guess second and third best hand get their prizes. It's not that easy. Actually it got a lot more complicated considering your point. I voted fold but with equal stacks AA will be 1st or 2nd or 3rd best hand very often. Don't have time to count it but I think I've changed my mind. I Call :D ;)
    • Mugge88
      Mugge88
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2006 Posts: 510
      The problem is calculating the $EV for calling. Folding is easily calculated as 34$ (using an ICM calculator).. I could easily see myself folding here, since you still have a quite good chance off getting 1st price (blinds are still small, so you can outplay your opponent if you are a good HU player).. If it had been cash you should of course call every single time - no exeptions, but the payout structure in an SNG makes the decision harder.. I would like to see it calculated by SNGwiz or something like that..
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      That's the thing...
      Whether it's EV+ or EV- to call, you don't know ...
      That's where gut instincts come up, in situations that are quite complicated and you have no precedent nor any time to calculate the whole thing.

      And that's where I say "I'd rather be certain of 30 bucks and see if I can defeat him headsup to gain main prize, than to take a shot as a favorite and risk getting nothing"
      It's like saying "let's dig that good looking chick and afterwards let's see whether I got a shot at the really hot one, instead of trying for the real hot one immediately and risk [***] alone at night"
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      Originally posted by Timor83
      Would you go all in with suited connectors when you're so close to the money? Really, I don't see that happening...
      yeah that's my point exactly. Sure if you're actually ABLE to put ALL the opponents on high pocketpairs, it might be +ev to call with SC.

      But a lot more likely you're going to be seeing action from hands like AKs AKo AQs JJ QQ KK (TT, AQo, AJs), the brackets being more possible if they were the first to shove.

      In fact if this situation actually happened, that's exactly what I would put EVERYONE on (perhaps the first 2 shovers have lower pocket pairs or Ace-rag).
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Indeed, so the answer is simple: you have a very high chance to be the best hand, so you're going to finish high no matter how the cards come. That makes this call always EV+, no doubt about it :)
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      this poll would be better if you had 3999 chips, makes it a good question, if you end in 2nd place in the hand, you lose.
    • rubysilesia
      rubysilesia
      Silver
      Joined: 03.07.2007 Posts: 351
      I'd say u can be 90% sure that u will have at least 3rd place. So it's like having a shot on a supermodel (most likely), hot chick, good looking and very very small chance that u will have to watch porn or u can pick hot chick right now.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Usually I end up with a "bad beat" in such a situation :D
      Or at least a definate cooler