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[NL20-NL50] nl50 SH 9Ts mwp - 2pair on flop

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($101)
      Hero ($60.55)
      UTG ($55.70)
      UTG+1 ($50)
      CO ($50)
      BTN ($34.50)

      Dealt to Hero 9:spade: T:spade:

      UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, BTN calls $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1

      FLOP ($4.75) T:club: A:spade: 9:heart:

      Hero checks, UTG bets $3, BTN folds, Hero raises to $10, UTG calls $7

      TURN ($24.75) T:club: A:spade: 9:heart: 7:club:

      Hero bets $15.50, UTG raises to $35, Hero raises to $49.05 (AI), UTG calls $9.20 (AI)

      RIVER ($113) T:club: A:spade: 9:heart: 7:club: K:diamond:

      I call here because BU is fishy. UTG 23/20/4, 228hdns. I ch/raise flop to get value from strong Ax hands in villains range. When he calls I think its consistent with Ak/AQ.
      Turn is kinda ugly. Not sure whether villain is raising his 1 pair hands if he just called it on the flop. 4 combos of AA, 2 each of 99/TT, 9 combos of AT = 15.

  • 2 replies
    • N0pr3s3n7
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,296
      things get ugly at the point of the turn he can sure call his AK/AQ hands which you beat also he will cold call all other range such as AT/A9/TT/99/AA because the board isn't drawy and he wants to keep your weaker range in(i wrote this because if he ships the flop I think we can easily fold because we are never ahead,only if we have some super special reads he is on tilt or some history between you and him).Given that on the turn we are ahead only of hands which are Ax with the flushdraw which he will sure raise but he will do with all his other hands he flat called flop - sets/2pairs.I think here the best choice is to pick up equilator and see what he says.If you got equity versus his top range it's a call eitherwise it's super easy fold,although we have invested so much already.

      equity calculations:

      T9 vs AA,99,TT,A8s+,AT

      35% vs 65%

      we need: 32% at least to call.
      (I made my upper post before i make the calculations so i think the post more or over express quite different opinions but i hope you will understand it)

      After eq.calculations it looks like easy call with slight edge but against nitty opponents if you happen to play I don't ever like using this "slight edge on the turn" because i see their range without A8s+ for the flushdraws.

      Also about my thoughts
      if he ships the flop I think we can easily fold because we are never ahead
      T9 vs AA,99,TT,AT,A9
      11% vs 89%
      so i think if this happens we have easy fold.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Not really sure if I even want to c/r that flop for value
      Likely AQ/AK7AJ would take b/f line and he would very often just continue with better hands so I think c/c or lead on the flop is also fine
      Once you c/c flop you can lead or go to calldown mode since there aren't that many draws and I think you don´t get called down/or he shoves turn by worse hands that often
      as played. once you c/r flop, b/c turn is reasonable line to take