[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH KQs multiway

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($54.85)
      BB ($64.40)
      Hero ($76.60)
      UTG+1 ($50.75)
      CO ($57)
      BTN ($66.30)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: K:club:

      Hero raises to $1.75, fold, fold, BTN calls $1.75, fold, BB calls $1.25

      FLOP ($5.50) J:diamond: 6:diamond: 5:heart:

      BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

      TURN ($5.50) J:diamond: 6:diamond: 5:heart: Q:heart:

      BB checks, Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4, BB folds

      RIVER ($13.50) J:diamond: 6:diamond: 5:heart: Q:heart: 8:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $7, Hero calls $7

      BU is a reg; 20/14/6, 176 hands, 7% 3b. BB is fish: 47/27/4, 140 hands.

      Ranges:

      villain is calling 11% on BU approximately. This is probably something like the following: {JJ-44, AQs-A8s, A5s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AQo-ATo, KQo}
      I think it is likely that, once we check (as pfr) he will be betting most of his Jx hands for value/protection against the fish.

      So when he calls on the turn, I suppose his range look something like this: {TT, AQs, ATs, A5s, KQs, T9s, AQo, KQo}. He might call on flop with sets, but he surely raises them on the turn so I think we can exclude JJ/55/66.

      I don't think we have a value bet on the River, since it's rather hard for a worse hands to call us - if TT called on the turn, it's pretty certain it folds on the River. So I think we can only check with the intention of bluff catching? when villain bets $7, it's hard to know what this is. I would expect 9T to bet rather more, so mostly this looks like a busted flush draw or a value bet by AQ/KQ.

      What does villain think our range is?

      we are opening from under the gun, approximately 15%. Generally I think regs don't tend to bet air in multiway pots (especially when there is a fish who can call a lot). So when I check the flop and bet the Qh on turn, I am likely to have 9Ts/QK/AQ/, maybe A :heart: K :heart: , although from time to time I will be just trying to take down the pot with 88/99 etc since no one should interest on the flop. on the River, since I don't bet villain can likely assume I don't have 9T. So I will have some missed draws and quite some Qx hands.

      I think it's rather close but I lean towards the call -- is that reasonable?
  • 5 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      wow really long analyze :)
      I would also c/c river just because I have quite strong hand and there are million draws that missed on the turn so he can either bet himself for value QK/QT or bluff with missed draws. I agree if you bet yourself very likely he is not going to call you down with worse hands too often so I'´m fine with c/c line. ALso his betting range is definetely wider than AQ+which makes to me easy c/c river :)
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      First I thought that it's a standard c/snapcall on river. But after reading your assumptions on the ranges it gets a lot closer between c/f and c/c. But you are right that your hand is kind of face up on river, so betting has really no value. I'd propably lean towards c/c on river since villain seems to be flatting so much IP that he's going to be having so many combos of draws on turn which he can bluff on river, even though he propably shouldn't be bluffing those. WP!

      I'm quite confident that villain is also flatting lower sc's than T9s. So it's going to get even easier call.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Ok, thanks for your thoughts guys. He had AQ and I think he played it pretty well - nice value bet on the river for an amount which I can call. He had my hand range pretty well sussed ;)
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Ok, thanks for your thoughts guys. He had AQ and I think he played it pretty well - nice value bet on the river for an amount which I can call. He had my hand range pretty well sussed ;)
      yeah likely only one hand that you´re loosing is AQ but compared how many worse hands he can be bluffing there KQ is still easy c/c
    • Bierbaer
      Bierbaer
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      Originally posted by Tim64
      villain is calling 11% on BU approximately. This is probably something like the following: {JJ-44, AQs-A8s, A5s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, AQo-ATo, KQo}
      I think we can safely assume he has all PPs 22-JJ in his callingrange as he would call 33 and 22 for setvalue as well. I'd also put in 98s and 87s, maybe even 76s as most people like to call this BU/UTG hoping to have good implieds.
      In my opinion most people rather fold KQo, ATo and AJo because they fear being dominated.
      So the range I give him for calling preflop looks like this:
      {22+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,AQo+}



      I think it is likely that, once we check (as pfr) he will be betting most of his Jx hands for value/protection against the fish.

      Agree. So his range for betting probably looks like this:
      {55+,AdKd,AdQd,AJs,KdQd,KJs,QJs,JTs,Td9d,9d8d}.
      Therefore the rest is:
      {33-22,AcKc,AhKh,AsKs,AcQc,AhQh,AsQs,KcQc,KhQh,KsQs,Tc9c,Th9h,Ts9s,9c8c,9h8h,9s8s,AQo+}

      So when he calls on the turn, I suppose his range look something like this: {TT, AQs, ATs, A5s, KQs, T9s, AQo, KQo}. He might call on flop with sets, but he surely raises them on the turn so I think we can exclude JJ/55/66.

      You skipped the part where you explain why you bet the turn ;-):
      The bet is for value against the fish - not vs the reg!
      Therefore I'd bet $5, the board is pretty drawy at this point.

      Once the reg does actually call I put him on Qx and T9s w/o diamonds for the most part.


      I don't think we have a value bet on the River, since it's rather hard for a worse hands to call us - if TT called on the turn, it's pretty certain it folds on the River. So I think we can only check with the intention of bluff catching? when villain bets $7, it's hard to know what this is. I would expect 9T to bet rather more, so mostly this looks like a busted flush draw or a value bet by AQ/KQ.

      Agree, it's not a spot where we can valuebet (we could do it vs the fish though).
      I think it's actually a c/f spot. In case he has a hand like TT he's never going to bet it. The same goes for worse Qx (he usually doesn't have any worse Qx in the first place but in case he does I think he doesn't bet).
      So the only hands we can c/c against are busted FDs - but again it's somewhat unlikely because imo he bets most of those on the flop.
      And...


      What does villain think our range is?

      ...when he thinks about our range it has to be pretty obvious to him that we're bluffcatching - we either have complete air with which we tried to take down the pot on the turn so he can check back busted NFDs for SD-value (there are only 3 or 4 combinations of other FDs left), or we have hit a Q on the turn and are planning on check-calling in which case there's no point for him to bluff.
      Conclusion: Imo this is AQ the vast majority of the time, there's simply no other hand he could play this way (if he's thinking).


      we are opening from under the gun, approximately 15%. Generally I think regs don't tend to bet air in multiway pots (especially when there is a fish who can call a lot). So when I check the flop and bet the Qh on turn, I am likely to have 9Ts/QK/AQ/, maybe A :heart: K :heart: , although from time to time I will be just trying to take down the pot with 88/99 etc since no one should interest on the flop.
      If you wanted to take it down with those imo you would've bet the flop. The Q improves his range so much that if you wanted to give up the pot on the flop you just got an additional good reason to not invest any more money.

      on the River, since I don't bet villain can likely assume I don't have 9T. So I will have some missed draws and quite some Qx hands.

      I think it's rather close but I lean towards the call -- is that reasonable?