[NL20-NL50] nl25 SH rush - 66 in the SB vs BU steal

    • BattleHunter
      Joined: 12.11.2009 Posts: 880
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($28.14)
      BB ($49.71)
      UTG ($25)
      UTG+1 ($26.04)
      CO ($31.65)
      BTN ($24.63)

      Dealt to Hero 6:spade: 6:club:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, fold

      FLOP ($1.75) J:heart: 6:diamond: 2:club:
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      TURN ($1.75) J:heart: 6:diamond: 2:club: 2:spade:
      Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

      RIVER ($4.25) J:heart: 6:diamond: 2:club: 2:spade: 8:heart:
      Hero bets $3.25, BTN raises to $7.08, Hero raises to $26.14 (AI), BTN calls $15.55 (AI)


      villain is 16/12, 27% BU steal, 67% cbet, aggression drops down geometrically flop->turn->river (hence we call 66, since we are likely to see cheap showdown)

      after he check's behind flop, I put him on either a weak J that doesn't want to bet many streets or on 77-TT. Him calling the 2 on the turn doesn't change that range. Now on the river it gets interesting - he minraizes our barrel. Is shove the correct play? Now that I think of it, it smells of 88, but regardless, my shove can't be called by the range I put him on - he's probably not going to call a 3b-shove. Maybe 2x can, but does he have a deuce all that often in that spot?

      Question is should we just flat, because the hands we beat fold anyway, and he sometimes shows up with 88?
  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would just b/c river
      I think most players would c-bet flop with J8 and not really sure which other hands he is raising river, maybe also 2x that he just called turn, that he would also call shove
      So althoughj you have there very strong hand his line is also very strong so I´d prefer just going to showdown rather than playing for stacks