[NL20-NL50] nl50 JK mwp vs fish - top 2 on flop

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($50)
      BB ($46.25)
      Hero ($51.15)
      CO ($49)
      BTN ($61.55)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: K:heart:

      Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, fold, SB calls $1.50, fold

      FLOP ($5.75) 7:diamond: K:diamond: J:club:

      SB bets $4, Hero raises to $12, CO folds, SB calls $8

      TURN ($29.75) 7:diamond: K:diamond: J:club: Q:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $17, SB calls $17

      RIVER ($63.75) 7:diamond: K:diamond: J:club: Q:club: 4:club:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      villain is 43/3/1, 32 hands.
      I think villain's range for donking into two players is: {77/JJ, AdJd, AdTd, K6s+, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, K9o+} I think we probably need to raise to get value from Kx hands and also flush draws?

      when he calls our raise, I think we are looking at the above range, although 77 becomes less likely since he will 3b us most of the time.

      Turn is a little bit more tricky since KQ/AdJd are now ahead of us but I still think we need to bet vs whole of his range?

      he probably raises straights on turn, so KQ/Kx/QT seems most likely now. On the River, once villain checks, I think we should probably bet. At the time I was worried about KQ/77/JJ but I think he would have bet/raised at least his sets earlier on. I was not sure what worst hand could call me but maybe we should push in the hope of getting a call from hands like K9/KT if he has these at showdown?

      Thanks
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      A lot of times he has there missed draws, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't shove river for value. SO I would shove and expect to get called by Kx hand. He would very often just c/rai turn himself better hands so that makes river shove quite profitable
      Also you can bet turn 22$ to protect more your hand against draws
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      Thanks - you are right. He had K7... Should have shoved :(
    • Bierbaer
      Bierbaer
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      Raise bigger on the flop imo, PSB would be $20 so $16 should be fine.
      As played I'd bet $24 on the turn for value and protection and shove the river.

      I think you got his range for bet/calling pretty much right, the only thing is that there might be some more Jx in there, but they don't change much as he probably just c/folds them on the turn in any case.

      And yes: as played shove river for value. As you say he probably either 3bets the flop with sets or checkraises the turn with better 2pairs/straights so there isn't much left we have to be afraid of (if anything).