solid reg overshoves paired board, is this call really that bad?

    • conall88
      conall88
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      villain is a solid profitable 6 max reg, with a minor amount of MTT winnings.
      he has limited HU experience, but has been playing an aggressive style with plenty of 3betting.

      up until the river I expect to be up against garbage, low pairs etc.

      when he shoves hes obv only repping 4 outs. Is this call +EV long term?

      obv its awful he flopped quads, and I normally would NEVER call here, but I figured the reads were quite substantial for this villain.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $40(BB) Replayer
      ($3,205)
      Hero ($2,795)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: 8:heart:

      Hero raises to $80, calls $40

      FLOP ($160) 3:diamond: 3:club: 5:heart:

      checks, Hero bets $80, calls $80

      TURN ($320) 3:diamond: 3:club: 5:heart: 5:spade:

      checks, Hero bets $211, calls $211

      RIVER ($742) 3:diamond: 3:club: 5:heart: 5:spade: 8:club:

      bets $2,834 (AI), Hero calls $2,424 (AI)

      Hero shows A:heart: 8:heart:
      (Pre 49%, Flop 0.0%, Turn 0.0%)

      shows 3:spade: 3:heart:
      (Pre 51%, Flop 100.0%, Turn 100.0%)

      wins $5,590
  • 7 replies
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Check turn imo, you won't fold out anything better anyway and if you assume he has random garbage in his range then pick off a bluff on river once turn checks through.

      As played, don't see what worse he could do this for value so just ask yourself if solid reg will float two streets OOP w random garbage and then decide to donk overbet shove the river as a bluff more than ~43% of the time. I'd say no.
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      I am having trouble finding a bluff that could be in his range.

      Let's say the flop is K72 with 2 hearts and you have AK. You bet flop he calls. turn is 8 of clubs you bet and he calls. river is 3 of spades. He shoves river. In this situation it is possible he has the busted flush draw as well as monsters like 77 or K8 or something. He would have called both streets with the FD possibly.

      Now for your hand try and figure out something he can call 2 streets with and then shove the river. 64 offsuit might call once on the flop (even that would be bad). Ax might call twice but would never shove river. pocket deuces might call flop but bluff turn not river. Let's say he has 87o and bluffs 2 streets only to hit his 8. Will he shove as a bluff? He might make a small value bet but that would be super thin since you already called 2 streets.

      Also there is player tendencies or more specifically, tendencies of bad players. 1: They tend to slowplay big hands. 2: They try to play fancy when they have big hands. 3: They try to do things that look stupid when they have big hands. All this is to say that I think your call is horrible. Try to think about every situation in terms of ranges. What hands can he have based on the way he played?

      If you feel like you have to see a showdown with your A high then it is IMPERATIVE that you check the turn. Betting the turn is a decent play in my opinion for a free showdown with your A high and for protection.

      About aggressive players and light 3bettors: good players are going to take advantage of their image. He is reraising you 3 times in a row when you open the button because it is a low cost play designed to slowly TILT you. You are tricked into thinking that he is just a super aggressive retard who is going to try and bluff you at every point. Believe me when all the money goes into the middle like it did here then villain will always have some kind of nut hand.

      Hope I helped a little.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      ^^^ Can't believe I forced myself to read all that tl;dr, but yeah, I agree. I'd snap fold 3x here and puke w 5x.
    • conall88
      conall88
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2009 Posts: 1,715
      alright thanks for the advice. as for hands he could have, I was expecting to see low pocket pairs he didn't feel he could fold, but thinking about it more, I could probably only see 66-TT thinking about doing that, and of those I only beat 66 and 77. so yeah, this seems like a donkey play on my part, but hey, it was worth it since I learned something.
    • rbdflyboy
      rbdflyboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.07.2008 Posts: 56
      Bluff inducing worked its magic. Only in this case it backfired and you got rivered by your own card. The only worse card for you to catch would be an ace. The best information received would have been the river bet. I bet you were thinking win or at least split? Tough call regardless. This scenario has happened to me as well and in my case I didn't expect that low a range of holdings. What did I learn...the only thing certain in hold'em is how uncertain hold'em is.
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,354
      why do we play our sd value fast on flop and turn?
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by LemOn36
      why do we play our sd value fast on flop and turn?
      Because checking is for pussies