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terrible variation, help needed

    • alexcorbu
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 8
      First of all sorry for my bad english... here's the deal
      i think this image speaks for itself:

      I'm playing sng's for 4 months or so.. I've learned form a training site form pro's in the sng areas like Aaron barone, grayson physioc.. etc
      I've started with few bucks and built my BR to 7-800 & in about 2000 sng's
      I played 9 and 18 mans at the 1.75 and 3.40.
      ROI around 12 % but the Adjusted EV+ was higher at 23% or so.. so i was wining under expectations,but i was on with that.

      The problem is that i lost like 200 buy ins in my downswing and its still not over. I have adjusted by playing less tables at a time, lowering the limits, looking for leaks etc.. but no luck.
      This graph is tow weeks old.. in these 2 weeks i lost another 100 buy ins at 1.75, and still running bad.
      I'm loosing everything, not just flips or 60-40's , even to the 3 outers or runing cards or underpairs..

      Don't get me wrong, i understand variation, i can cope with it but this is just ridiculous.. lucky for me that i had more than 300 buy ins at the level i was playing, but now i'm relay stuck.

      What can you tell me, some advice or anything i will be happy to hear it.

  • 6 replies
    • OZSA
      Joined: 18.05.2009 Posts: 804
      prolly everyone gonna tell you to read and learn more, play even less tables, analyze ur hands and so on...i bet ur past those things, as long as ur EV is not negative, ur play is good, and the graph speaks for itself.. my best advice is to stop for like 2 weeks, also, dont grind for any bonuses, its just not worth it, unless its a huge bonus..lets say 1st deposit bonuses, screw those, useless, ur loosing more then the bonus gives...just take a break, sometimes when ur on a doomswitch after some weeks ur "luck" gets back to normal..for example, today I just cant win a hand in cash, lost 4 flopset rainbow board in a row, had like 10setups, flop 2pair vs set, flop set vs bigger set, flopstraight vs set hitting full..and so on..u cant change it..just take a break it will help
    • andreibalint
      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      Don't know if it helps but that's super sick. I think you should forget about multitable tournaments since they add a lot of variance.

      Also you might play normal games instead of turbos (but keep in mind that this will kill some of your $/hour).

      The number of tables you are playing has no significance in theory (however it could mess up your brains and depress you -> you go to tilt ). If i were you i would prefer to massively multitable to get out of the hole.

      As a rather extreme measure you could find a game with lower variance such as DON's if you like them (i don't, being too agressive there is a big mistake).

      Remember that you have to expect to loose a lot too. Remember that 50% really means you win once and loose once. Even 10% has to happen sometimes. And again, and again... What i mean is that i sometimes have absolutely horrible session, when i get incredible bad beats and get super-crushed hand after hand and finish over my ROI the session.

      Anyway, go learn some more and play until your eyes bleed some normal 9man sngs.
    • onepark
      Joined: 09.07.2009 Posts: 970
      I Agree with OZSA,

      U should take week or two off..

      I had 150 BI Downswing this month,

      Losing EVERY 50% hands

      AK vs TT
      QQ vs AK
      and also start losing dominating hands

      AK vs K5
      AQ vs A5
      KQ vs QT

      and so on..

      Then I start playing passively and scared of getting knocked out. and become VERY easy to get tilt.. one suck out i go tilt!

      Took a week off... not even thinking of poker

      Now im back, I am playing more aggressive than i was before i took week off.

      and I am still getting multiple suck outs every session but I don go tilt as bad as i was..

    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      There are a couple of bugs in HEM's luck adjustment. One is that the calculation is not correct for MTT SNGs. Players seem to be reported as extremely unlucky in MTT SNGs, with the red line always far ahead of the green line, even if they have not really been unlucky.

      When you aren't satisfied with your results, work on your game. Take decisions where you aren't sure whether you played correctly, and post them. Try to determine what ranges your opponents have when they do particular things. Look for whether you have leaks in any phase of the game, or missed opportunities.
    • onepark
      Joined: 09.07.2009 Posts: 970
      i think u should take some time off and during that time just do some study like going over your hands, play ICM Trainer and watch some videos :)
      then go back play fresh :)
    • lennonac
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      Like Pzhon said the EV line doesn't work for 18 mans, you can check for just your 9 mans but if you play on stars you can't do that either as HEM does not record field size correctly unless you reach the final table