Thoughts and patterns regarding online poker.

    • Styr
      Styr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      I have been playing poker for over a year now, and consider myself to be at least break-even player for the last 9 months, as I improved my game enough by then to win back the money I had lost earlier on, and at the moment I am generally making a profit, undoubtedly not as much as I'd wish to :P . Here are the things that are bothering me (in comparison), however:

      1 - Every time I make a new deposit I get a good run of cards, or by some other means manage to give suckouts and make a nice profit. Usually it lasts for one or two days. After that, I'll lose almost every single all in hand where I am ahead, and the same for the hands where I am behind. I am playing tournaments, hence the need to go all in at some stage. Sooner or later I have to steal, re-steal or simply put my money in with what I believe to be the best hand, and when I am called, I lose 90% of them. Ax to a lower Ax, Any better hand to a pair the villain hits or a straight, flush, you name it. Yet nothing of the sort happens during the first day or two. I made a new deposit after a 2 week break from a poker room, and the very first day I won the single 180 man tournament I entered, when by all means I should have finished at third place, at best. Yet I kept sucking out and won. (Hitting a staight vs a better hand I can't remember, hitting a straight with A5s vs QQ, and so on)
      Managed to win a few satellite tournaments as well, on the same day bringing my initial $25 deposit to a total of $200, most of which I withdrew.

      And now, on the third day, I have lost almost every single hand, with one exception, where I sucked out on aces. Not that it helped, because I was sucked out myself later on when defending my blinds with AJo to A7o. And so on, and so on. I believe I have had around 15 such hands today. 15 hands I went all in with in a tournament and was called, or called myself [hyper/super-turbo*, SNG and MTT tournaments; stealing and defending the blinds, and all in with what I believed to be the best hand, or a (QQ) coinflip in the worst case]. Did not have too much trouble with post flop play, as I did not play too many hands.

      As said, this is not the first time I have seen such patterns. The same thing happened with my previous deposit. I made it to $200 in two days, hitting miracle hands, or sucking out in insane ways, yet from the third day onwards I went on losing it, mostly to worse hands. Of course I did make some bad judgements, i.e defending my blind when I could have done without it, but I knew what the villains range was, and knew I was ahead. On this I can not blame anyone but myself. It still does not mean that this can be normal.

      I have been switching between two different poker rooms, and noticed the same pattern in both of them. It is fairly easy to win the day after the deposit, (by fairly easy I mean, if you know how to play, if you don't know the basics, you will be busted out with a crap hand anyway, or be blinded out), but very hard to play profitably afterwards. The best I managed at the other poker room, was breaking even and getting up and downswings in the range of $50, until I was again at break-even. (I did withdraw a profit, before my bankroll was flushed down straight to the toilet. Literally.

      I do believe, emphasize the world believe that online poker is not rigged, as the risks would be too high, and they should have no reason to cheat. But in all honesty, I do not know that, and such patterns make me doubtful, as I have always won most directly after depositing, and from then on going on a break-even trend, which would be a outright losing one, If I were a worse player with no skills whatsoever.

      2 - I have been playing poker in a few brick and mortar casinos, and the only times I have lost playing live, are the cases where I have made bad decisions, or turned greedy. I have made a constant profit in general. No major upswings, no major downswings, just bad plays and losses, as a result, or proficient plays and winnings mixed with a few bad beats and a few suckouts given to some poor fellow pokerplayers.

      Am I the only one to see such a pattern? Can it really be a honest variance? And now the epic question, is online poker rigged? :P

      *As to not give away the poker rooms in question.
  • 18 replies
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well im guessing that your not a regular player if you cash out everytime you win 200$ or so. Therefor i can also assume that your basing your assumptions on those poker rooms in questions on less then 1000 tournaments. And yes variance in tournaments can be pretty high. Swings where you dont get a significant cash in 100-200 tournaments in a row are pretty common.
    • Atoks
      Atoks
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,354
      I went as far as about the first half of the first paragraph u wrote and stopped reading. U might be a B/E MTT player but u lack quite a bit to becoming a winning MTT player. No offence dude, but when someone writes they lose 90% of their Ax vs. weaker Ax (or any other nonsensible value) they are clearly biased and don't seem to grasp certain vital concepts.

      GL in the future though.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      lol
    • corsc
      corsc
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.11.2009 Posts: 140
      I know Im only a silver/bronze player but I would like to try to help anyway :)

      Did you consider that you might be suffering from some self induced tilt?

      By this I mean you tilt yourself (believing you are invincible or "always right") after the initial good run and then tilting yourself with a "hopelessness"/"cannot win" tilt later on?

      I am not expert but I would suggest you try doing the occasional self review and/or record a video and get some comments to see if you are making good decisions and getting unlucky (variance) or making bad (tilt based) ones.
    • wasy8
      wasy8
      Black
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      Originally posted by Styr
      2 - I have been playing poker in a few brick and mortar casinos, and the only times I have lost playing live, are the cases where I have made bad decisions, or turned greedy. I have made a constant profit in general. No major upswings, no major downswings, just bad plays and losses, as a result, or proficient plays and winnings mixed with a few bad beats and a few suckouts given to some poor fellow pokerplayers.

      Am I the only one to see such a pattern? Can it really be a honest variance? And now the epic question, is online poker rigged? :P

      *As to not give away the poker rooms in question.
      variance occurs in live poker too, clearly you are on the right side of variance based on this description.

      seriously, learn about standard deviation and sample sizes. you haven't even come close to understanding what variance is.
    • UeYa
      UeYa
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.09.2009 Posts: 96
      The solution is easy:
      1. Deposit
      2. Play one day and do a lot of winnings
      3. Withdraw evertyhing
      4. Wait some days
      5. Go through point 1 to 3
      6. Profit!!1!!

      :f_cool:
    • RspctBRM
      RspctBRM
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.08.2010 Posts: 4
      Originally posted by UeYa
      The solution is easy:
      1. Deposit
      2. Play one day and do a lot of winnings
      3. Withdraw evertyhing
      4. Wait some days
      5. Go through point 1 to 3
      6. Profit!!1!!

      :f_cool:
      +1 :f_love:
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      no seriously just lol
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      is online poker rigged?


      There should be a forum rule about this. Everyone asking this should be shot or something...

      Well i think that it's MUCH MUCH easier to rig a live poker game then an online one if it helps. I don't know why everybody says online poker is rigged but live one isn't.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by ihufa
      no seriously just lol
      You rly read all that?
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      no but from the comments it seemed like something i would laugh twice about.

      tbh i haven't read an OP for weeks :f_biggrin:
    • Styr
      Styr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      I was not expecting anyone to really say, or try to prove, that online poker was rigged, hence the ":P " at the end of the question. I did however follow a link in another thread on that topic, and come to a probable* scam, monetizing on everyone foolish enough. Now that made me laugh. The fact, that if such sites exist, means there must be people who buy their "products".

      (*Just to be politically correct. The same with online poker being rigged, or not. Simply put, I do not know that, nobody does, unless they own a slice of the market or work for it. Most likely it is not, as then there would not be winning players, and there should be no obvious reasons for any major poker room to do that, but there is a big difference between believing in something, and knowing it.)

      I have played my fair share of tournaments. You can check out Styrman007, if you so wish.

      Also, I play mostly satellite tournaments, with a few standard structured MTT's and SNG's in the mix, and those should in theory have far lower variance than standard MTT or SNG ones, as the top 10-30% of the players get basically the first place and there is no need for a one big win. You just need to double or triple up and wait for others to bust out.

      I might have been a victim of poor bankroll management at times, but have learned my lessons, and am also less prone to tilt I once was, as I have suffered a lot more beats than any losses at the lower limits could cause. When I see some idiotic plays, I just note the player as such, and when I myself make a bad judgement call, I try to remember it and not to make that same mistake again. I guess bubbling out in a $2100 and losing slightly earlier in a $2700 tournament makes any loss at the lower limits... well, not really a loss. They were steps tournaments I managed to get to, for those asking what the heck I was playing those buy-ins.

      Thank you to all who have posted constructive replies. :)
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      Originally posted by Styr


      Thank you to all who have posted constructive replies. :)

      and what about the rest of us??
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      There's a little man in FT's computers that does this.

    • Styr
      Styr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      Originally posted by ihufa
      Originally posted by Styr


      Thank you to all who have posted constructive replies. :)

      and what about the rest of us??
      Why do you feel touched? :P

      If you feel that a post is long and reading it is a waste of time, then don't. Also, the post count and the size of an organ specific to men is not in correlation. :P I should know, as I have the sixth post count in another message board with 7000 members. :D

      But seriously, I don't doubt for a second, that you are a good player and could provide good insight (I have the tendency to check people out). Also, there are lots of similar posts in this specific section, many of which are indeed of the LOL stock.

      Firstly, everyone has had to start from somewhere, no-one is perfect (at least I know of no people, who are). After all, that is the whole reason for this community, so that people could ask for advice and improve their play. The best way for one to learn is to teach others, so it is mutually beneficial. And this is one of the main reasons for this community's existence. Having simply fun can not hurt too, obviously.
      Secondly, there are far more better ways to judge people. Not that I care too much, but you asked. :)
    • Jehudas
      Jehudas
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2008 Posts: 207
      doomswitch... :s_evil:




      [conspiracy-mode=1]
      If I were to own a private poker room I'd have an attribute - let's call it p - attached to any player. This attribute would be a hidden field and would be somehow evaluated during seating, shuffling and dealing... :s_evil:
      Actions that increase p:
      • Deposit
      • Not logged in over longer period
      • Positive effects after spending a certain amount of rake in a single online session


      Actions that decrease p:
      • Withdrawal
      • No logged in over longer period
      • Play cash money tables :s_evil:

      [conspiracy-mode=0]

      [contribution-mode=1]

      I kinda have a feeling, that when I play in a bigger tourney (>189 people) there's quite often something like a "stalking" hand. This hand I will be dealt then a couple of times throughout this tourney. For instance, Jc4h was a hand I got dealt 11 times yesterday in a single 180-man (finished 3rd). This obviously is not statistical proven as the std dev is way too crazy and it doesn't always happen. Moreover, the "stalking hands" sometimes changes... =)
      Sometimes this can a quite nice effect and you get to see 9 times AA over 286 hands (like I did once) or it can really the sh!t outta you :f_love:

      [contribution-mode=0]
    • bogie
      bogie
      Global
      Joined: 23.09.2007 Posts: 109
      Redistribution.... RULES !!!!!, FEED THE FISH. :f_biggrin:
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      most of my good bad beat stories are from live games :P