[NL20-NL50] NL25 FR TPTK with nut flush draw, faced with check-raise on flop

    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      Grabbed byHoldem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer 
      SB ($34.88)
      BB ($25)
      UTG ($27.05)
      UTG+1 ($25.25)
      Hero ($37.07)
      CO ($23.31)
      BTN ($25.88)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: A:diamond:  

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $1

      FLOP ($2.85) 6:diamond: K:diamond: 5:diamond:  

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG+1 raises to $4.50, Hero raises to $35.82 (AI), UTG+1 calls $19.50 (AI)

      TURN ($50.85) 6:diamond: K:diamond: 5:diamond: 4:club:  

      RIVER ($50.85) 6:diamond: K:diamond: 5:diamond: 4:club: 9:club:  


      Hello!

      Villain is 15/12/1.8AF over 86 hands. I think his open limping range is almost exclusively small pairs and maybe some suited connectors, but I might be completely wrong.

      I think my hand is quite strong with TPTK and a draw for the nut flush, but I am not sure if my push is correct or not. When he raises he is basically representing a set/made flush, or maybe two pair, all of which are definitely within his assumed range. Considering that if he has a set or a flush I only have 30% equity, and it's a flip against two pair, I think maybe calling and re-evaluating on the turn might have been best. What are your thoughts on this hand and how I should have played it? 

      Thank you for your help.
         
  • 6 replies
    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      Hi!

      Yes you are right, you are up against set most of the time.
      Limp/call pf - ch/r flop is a typical set line.
      And I can see you understand the math behind it, so why push? Even if you call and reevaluate, how much value can you get on a 4x :diamond: board? Almost none, even the stupidest players tak their foot of the gas then.
      So yes, I think fold is the best option on flop against 15/12 guy.

      Hope it helps!
    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      Hi,

      Thanks for the advice!

      After reading your post I agree that folding would probably have been best. I don't think a tight guy like this has any reason to bluff here and even if I call and hit my flush I probably wont get paid any more.

      I am still not at the point where I can analyze my game while playing very well, and I feel I am making a lot of the same mistakes over and over. That is why I decided to start posting some hands and get advice from better players.

      Thanks again.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you have a little too much equity to really get away your hand
      So either 3-betting flop and calling shove or just b/c flop and shoving turn is fine play. He has there sometimes set, but maybe he is also playing that way with KQd and even if he has set you still have at least 30% equity and against 65 you´re flipping. So I think I would played hand the same way
    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      Kaitz20... You always suggest this line in cases like this but I swear to god I faced sets 90% of the time here. I understand this is defenitely favourable play in higher limits where there are actuall thinking tags, but on micro I am confronted with weak tag/nits most of the time, who are not willing to go broke with 2nd nutflush draw, especially not with 1.8AF. Plus if he goes for such agro play on flop why is he limping KQ preflop?

      So I would still suggest my fellow pokerstrategist to fold flop, save himself ton of money and adapt accordingly to better(or worse) players gradually as he progresses through limits.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Gregor86
      Kaitz20... You always suggest this line in cases like this but I swear to god I faced sets 90% of the time here. I understand this is defenitely favourable play in higher limits where there are actuall thinking tags, but on micro I am confronted with weak tag/nits most of the time, who are not willing to go broke with 2nd nutflush draw, especially not with 1.8AF. Plus if he goes for such agro play on flop why is he limping KQ preflop?

      So I would still suggest my fellow pokerstrategist to fold flop, save himself ton of money and adapt accordingly to better(or worse) players gradually as he progresses through limits.
      well even if you put him on set you can´t really b/f flop since you get correct odds to hit your flush on the turn
      If you really think he has there set then b/c flop and fold turn if you don´t improve 8although if you hit your K or A then it is also very hard to get rid of your hand since maybe he is doing that with 56
      Made one simulation to show how strong our hand is on that board:

      board: 5d6dKd
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      55, 66, 56 57.47% 8,535 0
      KsAd 42.53% 6,315 0

      So if you add there 56 it is not really mistake to play stacks on the flop since he may sometimes make some moves and you´re not have to worry folding sometimes best hand

      If you only put him on set, then likely b/c flop and c/f turn ui is better
      board: 5d6dKd
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      55, 66 70.05% 4,161 0
      KsAd 29.95% 1,779 0
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      I agree that its correct to shove if you put 56 in his range, but you really expect 15/12 guy to limp call 56s utg? I do agree that you cant fold to flop raise getting 3:1 and on the turn it also depends on his bet sizing, and if you hit an A you get even more outs.