[NL2-NL10] NL200: TPTK in position vs. solid opponent

    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)       
      Position:
      Stack
      UTG:
      $224.80
      Hero:
      $655.52
      BU:
      $181

      1/2 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.7 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K:diamond: , A:diamond:
      UTG calls $2.00, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls $2.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $12.00, CO folds, BU calls $12.00, 2 folds, UTG calls $10.00, UTG+2 folds.

      Flop: ($41.00) 9:club: , 5:heart: , A:spade: (3 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $30, BU folds, UTG raises to $60.00, Hero calls $30.00.

      Turn: ($161.00) 4:diamond: (2 players)
      UTG bets $100, Hero raises to $200.00, UTG raises to $152.80 (All-In).

      River: ($513.80) 6:club:


      Final Pot: $513.80

      Ah, a classic TPTK problem, gotta love them (not). After Villains flop minraise he either has an A and wants to know where he stands, or he has a set and wants to build a bigger pot. His turnbet gives me a very difficult decision for all my chips. If I set his range to A9s+,55,99 or AA, my equity is about 55%. Push? Fold? I've often heard that when your equity is 50/50, both folding and pushing are correct in this case, but does that count against a solid opponent?
  • 3 replies
    • degnic
      degnic
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2007 Posts: 3,953
      limp from UTG and check/raise smells strongly like a set to me. Something like AQ doesn't seem likely to me as, again first in limp from UTG with 17% VP$IP - seems like pocket pairs. Ofcourse you have to call his minraise on flop - on turn you're getting pretty good pot odds though.. So I think it's close, I wouldn't blame you for a fold though. If you decided to push and he shows the set, I would make a note of how he played it.
    • undercover82
      undercover82
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      He must have a set or at least 2 pair here(not that likely) , there are no draws at all and he keeps betting on the turn , i would ditch the hand there. Why would he invest his whole stack with anything worse than your TPTK on this board?
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi Timor83!

      The board is very dry and he minraises you on the flop and makes a 2/3 potsize bet on the turn. I don't see a worse hand than your TPTK playing this way - especially if he is a solid opponent. Fold on the turn would be the best imo.

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81