SSS Pockets on Microlimits

    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      I have thought of something that appears to have EV+ on microlimits at least.
      Whenever I have at least medium pockets (8's or higher) in late position and someone raises in front of me with no other callers, it seems to be good to push all-in with any medium or better pair.

      The average pot at the time you have to decide is about 6 to 7 BB and you have on average 20 BB in your stack. If you're up against a single opponent, it's likely a good move to move all-in.

      You get about 50 % fold equity there
      => ( 50 % folded * 6,5 BB ~ + 3,25 BB)
      If called, there is about 42 BB in the pot you have about 50-60 % chance to get called by 2 overcards at that level like AQ, AK, even KQ or AJ at NL10
      => ( 50 % called * 55 % overcards * 42 BB * (54 % - 46 % odds) ~ + 0,9 BB )
      There's of course also a 30 % chance of facing an overpair
      => ( 50 % called * 30 % overpair * 42 BB * (19 % - 81 % odds) ~ - 3,9 BB )
      And there are donks who call with Ax or even a lower pair than 8's
      => ( 50 % called * 15 % donked * 42 BB * (70 % - 30 % odds) ~ + 1,25 BB )

      Total sum : 3,25 BB + 0,9 BB - 3,9 BB + 1,25 BB = + 1,5 BB

      This is a deviation from SSS I tried today while playing regular SSS and it seems to work, the number of donks is incredible. I'm gonna keep track of PokerTracker and let you know what 100 pockets 88-TT have brought me using this strategy at NL10. It seems to be solid, even more if you can identify as a calling station, who'll call any raise made on him.

      Let me know if I should quit this immediately, but tell me where I've gone wrong then as well plz.
  • 12 replies
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi SonicXT!

      I don't think it will work because if you get called the best situation you get is a coinflip against overcards. That means your fold equity has to be big enough. With a 20 BB stack that's not possible.
      But let us know about your experiment (and please stop it as soon as you lose too much money!).

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Laurenz1988
      Laurenz1988
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.09.2007 Posts: 180
      Uhm, ur making up total assumptions that make no sense to me at all. Like the 50% Fold equity, thats like totaly made up and could easily be 10% or 90% depending on the villain. The odds of villain having a certain hand are totaly made up aswell.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      You're unbelievable. Can't you at least stick to the SHC for one lousy week? :P This is certainly not +EV, because:

      - What in god's name made you believe you have 50% fold equity? This depends on the opponent (tight~loose) as well as the cards he's raising with. You need at least a couple of 100 hands like this to even remotely have a feel for your fold equity here, and still.
      - You're not calculating the possiblity that the blinds are still left to act.
      - I don't know why you are putting lower pair and the Ax hand in one equation, but it certainly isn't right. There are more possibilities to make Ax hands than to make lower pair hands.
      - How did you come up with the percentages for the chance he's holding the particular hands? This once again depends on the opponent.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      It was just an idea I wanted to try out and you actually would be surprised at the fold equity ... I'll let you know, but at NL10, don't forget, people raise with a lot of hands that are folded against an all-in and there are many people who'd call an all-in with 22 to 77 or Axs expecting a coinflip since they think they get the right odds to call (which they do for a coinflip)
      So far, it's proven effective when used on the correct tables against the right tables. It might turn out badly and I'll quit it then.

      But hey Timor, there's improvement in my style. Now, I at least request an inquiry about the effectiveness of unusual plays on the forum.

      Making plays like this also seems to help to get rid of a too tight image, people commented on me being quite loose/fishy to do that kind of stuff, which comes in real handy when that top hand arrives :)
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Here is a summary of the hands I played like this yesterday:
      - 77 : +24,5 BB against KQs (called)
      - 77 : -21,5 BB against AQo (called)
      - 88 : +7 BB, +8 BB, +7,5 BB (all folded)
      - 99 : +18,1 BB against 77 (called)
      - TT: +42,5 BB (called by ministacked KK, bigstack A7s), hit set, would've won 13,5 BB if I didn't hit the set
      - TT : -21BB (called by QQ)
      - TT : +6BB, +5BB (folds)

      So far so good, but I used this only very occasionally (played
      1,7 k hands yesterday) when it felt right to me according to the oppositions playing styles.
      Seeing all the allins at NL10 happening between Axs, any pairs or high cards, I felt comfortable trying it out. Not to be stubborn or out of boredom (played 9 tables simultaneously) but because of the sheer number of donks.
      The fold equity against hands to which I'd only be a small favorite in the coinflip makes the difference, but again ... only so far :D
    • Laurenz1988
      Laurenz1988
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.09.2007 Posts: 180
      These are just a few handpicked hands that dont really have any value. This is so totaly table and image depended that u cant really say anything usefull about it.
    • Timor83
      Timor83
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2007 Posts: 2,793
      Btw...have you even thought about the fact that you don't have the bankroll to try out unconventional experiments? And once again, these are single cases that don't have any statistical value for proving that your style of play is right.
    • rubysilesia
      rubysilesia
      Silver
      Joined: 03.07.2007 Posts: 351
      Your calculation are based on made up assumptions. I believe that your trick actually might be +EV thou. Especially when played against steel attempts and raises from late position. I wouldn't do that against raises from early since people don't give credit to shortstack allins and will call u (often with dominating PP). U can play those hand a lot smarter I think. If u just call in those situation u can see the flop therefore get some extra useful information. Obviously u don't want to push if there's 3 high cards on the flop. Many people don't cbet on microlimits since they hit the flop 33% u can exploit it. Also a lot of people cbet very weak like 1/2 pot indicating a bluff u can exploit it as well.
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Seems like you had a good idea Sonic. Such moves are often profitable in general. It does depend upon your assumptions though.

      I have 65 hands at NL10 on Party where I pushed AI from the blinds. These hands include many situations where for one reason or another there was no fold equity PF. 41 hands were shown-down. Sonic's initial guess of 50%FE seems reasonable in light of this.

      If you have a villain who raises 30% of his best hands only to fold half of them in the event of a re-raise AI then Sonic's move has an EV of about 3.5BB's. (Open push for 19.5BB from SB,BB folds,4BB initial raise raise.)
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Originally posted by Timor83
      Btw...have you even thought about the fact that you don't have the bankroll to try out unconventional experiments? And once again, these are single cases that don't have any statistical value for proving that your style of play is right.
      The statistics weren't general, it was just to show why I think it was +EV and what the expected outcomes would be if I use this technique only when it feels right... I used it as a guideline, not as an absolute.
      Oh well, time to start a new 9-table session, let's see where this'll get me.
    • vladnz
      vladnz
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2007 Posts: 1,355
      SonicXT you should read
      Misdirected Initiative
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/no-limit/212/2/
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      "If you think that this or that should be changed, you can discuss it with the other players. You will find out through discussion whether your ideas are good or bad, so it can't hurt."

      That's what I did, didn't I.
      Well, I still only use this very unfrequently, when I have 88-TT in late position, against players of whom I know they raised a lot with bad hands before and fold to a reraise easily, I have been inactive for some while before (tight image) and the table conditions aren't loose and then you kinda get these percentages I figured.
      Most say it's stupid, some say it's got potential, for me it works for now and I'll quit as soon as it stops working. It's only been used 20 times now, in 3500 hands.