[NL20-NL50] nl50 KQs BU

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($49.10)
      BB ($50.75)
      UTG ($51.55)
      Hero ($120)
      BTN ($49.25)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: Q:spade:

      fold, Hero raises to $1.75, fold, SB calls $1.50, fold

      FLOP ($4) 5:spade: J:diamond: 9:heart:

      SB bets $2, Hero calls $2

      TURN ($8) 5:spade: J:diamond: 9:heart: 4:spade:

      SB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

      RIVER ($15) 5:spade: J:diamond: 9:heart: 4:spade: A:heart:

      SB bets $5, Hero raises to $15.50, SB folds

      Hero shows K:spade: Q:spade:

      Hero wins $23.75

      villain is 34/14/inf/57 hands, dbf 50% (2/4)
      I think he can donk here with 5x/Jx/9x, maybe some oesds/gutshots. Since against that range {AJs-A9s, A5s, KJs-K9s, K5s, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 65s, AJo, A9o, A5o, KJo-KTo, QTo+, J9o+, T9o, 65o} we have about 43% equity, I think we have a clear call on the flop with such good odds.

      I don't think the range changes much on the turn - but we can likely exclude very strong hand is now such as over pairs/sets since I think he normally bets much more like pot size.

      Since we pick up a flush draw, I don't want to fold (since sometimes we can take away the River even if we don't hit) but I'm wondering if a raise is better?

      on the River, he still may bet some of his missed draws 1/3 ps (for the draws that got there, I think he bets much more), but against the rest of the range we are now dead. I don't think he bets his A5/AJ/A9 or J9 hands so small either so I think his range is now pretty weak.

      Is it therefore reasonable to make a raise as played given that we expect him to fold at least half of his range in this spot. (i.e. 200 hand combinations he may bet on the River, while he most likely only calls our raise with around 100 combinations: {AJs, A9s, A5s, KJs, K9s, QJs, Q9s, J9s, AJo, A9o, A5o, KJo, QJo, J9o} (at most) and we need him to fold only around 43% of the time).

      Thanks
  • 3 replies
    • mrxLT
      mrxLT
      Silver
      Joined: 02.09.2008 Posts: 435
      Hi,

      I would raise flop with GS+overs. We have decent equity and we will have lots of turn cards to continue agression. In my experience flop donks like this usualy means weak made hand or draw.

      As played on the river i would fold. I might be wrong (or result orentied) but bad players dont take blockbet/fold line on the river. They still call bottom pair out of curiosity.

      But, lets see what judges will say.
    • Bierbaer
      Bierbaer
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      On the flop I think both options, raise and call, are viable.
      Since our equity is "ok" but not really good I usually go ahead and raise this, but calling to find out whether he follows through is ok as well imo.
      Also one more argument for calling is the backdoor-FD: On 25% of turns our equity will greatly increase, allowing us to put a lot of pressure on the presumably weak range of our opponent.
      I think at this point it's hard to make valid assumptions about the opponents range, it could be anything from complete air, semibluffs with all kinds of GS and OESD up to monsters like sets. But in general I find that the strong hands are rather unlikely since most people want to c/r and blow up the pot.


      So once we get to the turn and hit the FD folding is definitely no option any more.
      Even against one of the worst case hands like AJ we have 26.5% equity, against Jx with no overcard we even have 32.5% - so even if he pots it we have the equity to call.

      But since we figured out that his range mostly consists of weak hands I think we should raise in any case (even if he bets big).
      We will have a lot of foldequity against 9x and even weak Jx type hands and if he folds a bluff we're not particularly unhappy either - he was probably going to fire the river so we would've lost the pot!
      And if he calls the raise we have position and our equity is still good - and there are even more implied odds because if we make it $14 on the turn the pot will be $36 on the river with about $32 left.

      As played on the river if he doesn't think too much imo a bluffraise is ok because he will just see all his 9x and muck them because it's only 3rd pair.
      I'd make it a bit bigger though, a potsized raise would be $30 so I'd make it $21 - the $15 give him very good odds and the last thing we want is him making a herocall.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Bierbaer
      On the flop I think both options, raise and call, are viable.
      Since our equity is "ok" but not really good I usually go ahead and raise this, but calling to find out whether he follows through is ok as well imo.
      Also one more argument for calling is the backdoor-FD: On 25% of turns our equity will greatly increase, allowing us to put a lot of pressure on the presumably weak range of our opponent.
      I think at this point it's hard to make valid assumptions about the opponents range, it could be anything from complete air, semibluffs with all kinds of GS and OESD up to monsters like sets. But in general I find that the strong hands are rather unlikely since most people want to c/r and blow up the pot.


      So once we get to the turn and hit the FD folding is definitely no option any more.
      Even against one of the worst case hands like AJ we have 26.5% equity, against Jx with no overcard we even have 32.5% - so even if he pots it we have the equity to call.

      But since we figured out that his range mostly consists of weak hands I think we should raise in any case (even if he bets big).
      We will have a lot of foldequity against 9x and even weak Jx type hands and if he folds a bluff we're not particularly unhappy either - he was probably going to fire the river so we would've lost the pot!
      And if he calls the raise we have position and our equity is still good - and there are even more implied odds because if we make it $14 on the turn the pot will be $36 on the river with about $32 left.

      As played on the river if he doesn't think too much imo a bluffraise is ok because he will just see all his 9x and muck them because it's only 3rd pair.
      I'd make it a bit bigger though, a potsized raise would be $30 so I'd make it $21 - the $15 give him very good odds and the last thing we want is him making a herocall.
      +1
      if you think player is often just lead/folding flop then flop raise likely is a litle better than call, since if he has air, like Ax and he hits his A our equity really drops a lot and if we just call I think he would often barrel a lot of cards where it is hard to continue our hand.
      I also like turn raise, since he should lead/fold there very often or even if he bet/calls we still have great equity against his hand. River bluffraise is fine. he should b/f consider his bet size very often