[NL20-NL50] nl50 SH 68s mwp

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,667
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($50)
      BB ($65.25)
      UTG ($114)
      UTG+1 ($43.55)
      CO ($61.75)
      Hero ($133)

      Dealt to Hero 6:heart: 8:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, fold, Hero calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, BB checks

      FLOP ($2) K:heart: Q:diamond: 3:heart:

      SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, SB calls $1.50, BB folds, UTG+1 folds

      TURN ($5) K:heart: Q:diamond: 3:heart: 4:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($5) K:heart: Q:diamond: 3:heart: 4:diamond: 3:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $2.65, SB calls $2.65



      SB wins $9.80

      mp is 56/14 -- obvious fish (reason why I called pf - we could isolation raise but villain is folding to cb less than 50%). SB is 21/13/2, 75 hands.
      we could check behind on the flop since we need to get three players to fold, but since no one shows much strength, I don't mind the position be here?

      I thought that villain's range for Check calling flop and checking turn and River would be something like this: {Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h, K9s-K5s, Q7s+, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h, K9o-K6o, Q7o+, JTo}, around 215 combinations. If he calls 1/2ps bet on the River with all Kx/Qx combinations, it is 150 combinations - i.e. he calls 69% of the time and folds 31% of the time, then our bluff bet is not going to be profitable. He would need to be able to fold some of his weaker Qx hands (say, if he called with 100 combinations e.g. {K9s-K6s, Q9s+, K9o-K7o, Q9o+} ) then we should be fine.

      What do you think? I think if we check river we almost always lose.
  • 7 replies
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well considering every draw missed and turn and river didn't really improve your range to a pair either his likely not folding A high here to such a small bet after you checked the turn. You cant really represent much on this turn and river so i'd just give up. He folds suited connectors but there are only 2 suited connectors that beat you and he might as well bluff with those himself.
    • mrxLT
      mrxLT
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.09.2008 Posts: 435
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      Well considering every draw missed and turn and river didn't really improve your range to a pair either his likely not folding A high here to such a small bet after you checked the turn. You cant really represent much on this turn and river so i'd just give up. He folds suited connectors but there are only 2 suited connectors that beat you and he might as well bluff with those himself.
      +1
      You cant really rep 3x here and you would bet turn with Kx so your hand looks like busted draw on the river.
    • MathhNes
      MathhNes
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2009 Posts: 953
      checking back river, i think villain will very rarely fold by the river. Considering betting turn though to make him fold a hand like QJ/QT sometimes. Also a hand like TT/JJ. But river as mentioned no way he folds any made hand and very few draws remaining
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,667
      I dont see him have JJ/TT that often here. I think most players are raising this pre to isolate.

      But otherwise everyone agrees that my bet on river is bad.

      Could someone clarify which part of my reasoning is incorrect, please?

      Is it that I got villain's range wrong? i.e. he has lots more made hands in this spot compared to draws?

      or is it that because we can't represent anything much, he will call with the very bottom of his range ( but even then it seemed closer to me than people think so maybe my range is incorrect for villain?)

      Thanks
    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Well the range you gave him is wrong considering you put 9h8h and 8h7h in it and your holding 8h.

      What his calling you on the flop is Kx and Qx, JT and some flush draws. The only possible combos of flush draws are Ax and maybe Th9h, Jh8h that has you beat and he might fold, maybe his not even folding Ax on this river since you can't really represent anything.

      The main problem is that on the river you represent a busted flush pretty well and his not folding much of anything. Only thing you make him fold are those 3 better flushes and he might even call u down with A high considering you bet only 1/2 pot.

      What did he call you down with anyway?
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,667
      Well the range you gave him is wrong considering you put 9h8h and 8h7h in it and your holding 8h.

      :rolleyes:

      he had K :diamond: 7 :diamond:
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by MatejM47
      Well the range you gave him is wrong considering you put 9h8h and 8h7h in it and your holding 8h.

      What his calling you on the flop is Kx and Qx, JT and some flush draws. The only possible combos of flush draws are Ax and maybe Th9h, Jh8h that has you beat and he might fold, maybe his not even folding Ax on this river since you can't really represent anything.

      The main problem is that on the river you represent a busted flush pretty well and his not folding much of anything. Only thing you make him fold are those 3 better flushes and he might even call u down with A high considering you bet only 1/2 pot.

      What did he call you down with anyway?
      +1
      If you don´t bet turn I think you shouldn´t bluff river.
      he has there very often Kx or Qx and would call you down and as said he may even call you down with A high since draws missed. Hands that you try to fold out isn´t really that much and also pot is very small so you don´t have to fight about it