[NL20-NL50] nl50 SH 68s mwp

• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem \$0.50(BB) Replayer
SB (\$50)
BB (\$65.25)
UTG (\$114)
UTG+1 (\$43.55)
CO (\$61.75)
Hero (\$133)

Dealt to Hero 6 8

fold, UTG+1 calls \$0.50, fold, Hero calls \$0.50, SB calls \$0.25, BB checks

FLOP (\$2) K Q 3

SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets \$1.50, SB calls \$1.50, BB folds, UTG+1 folds

TURN (\$5) K Q 3 4

SB checks, Hero checks

RIVER (\$5) K Q 3 4 3

SB checks, Hero bets \$2.65, SB calls \$2.65

SB wins \$9.80

mp is 56/14 -- obvious fish (reason why I called pf - we could isolation raise but villain is folding to cb less than 50%). SB is 21/13/2, 75 hands.
we could check behind on the flop since we need to get three players to fold, but since no one shows much strength, I don't mind the position be here?

I thought that villain's range for Check calling flop and checking turn and River would be something like this: {Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h, K9s-K5s, Q7s+, JhTh, Jh9h, Th9h, 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h, 6h5h, K9o-K6o, Q7o+, JTo}, around 215 combinations. If he calls 1/2ps bet on the River with all Kx/Qx combinations, it is 150 combinations - i.e. he calls 69% of the time and folds 31% of the time, then our bluff bet is not going to be profitable. He would need to be able to fold some of his weaker Qx hands (say, if he called with 100 combinations e.g. {K9s-K6s, Q9s+, K9o-K7o, Q9o+} ) then we should be fine.

What do you think? I think if we check river we almost always lose.
• 7 replies
• Black
Joined: 21.01.2010
Well considering every draw missed and turn and river didn't really improve your range to a pair either his likely not folding A high here to such a small bet after you checked the turn. You cant really represent much on this turn and river so i'd just give up. He folds suited connectors but there are only 2 suited connectors that beat you and he might as well bluff with those himself.
• Bronze
Joined: 02.09.2008
Originally posted by MatejM47
Well considering every draw missed and turn and river didn't really improve your range to a pair either his likely not folding A high here to such a small bet after you checked the turn. You cant really represent much on this turn and river so i'd just give up. He folds suited connectors but there are only 2 suited connectors that beat you and he might as well bluff with those himself.
+1
You cant really rep 3x here and you would bet turn with Kx so your hand looks like busted draw on the river.
• Bronze
Joined: 24.08.2009
checking back river, i think villain will very rarely fold by the river. Considering betting turn though to make him fold a hand like QJ/QT sometimes. Also a hand like TT/JJ. But river as mentioned no way he folds any made hand and very few draws remaining
• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
I dont see him have JJ/TT that often here. I think most players are raising this pre to isolate.

But otherwise everyone agrees that my bet on river is bad.

Could someone clarify which part of my reasoning is incorrect, please?

Is it that I got villain's range wrong? i.e. he has lots more made hands in this spot compared to draws?

or is it that because we can't represent anything much, he will call with the very bottom of his range ( but even then it seemed closer to me than people think so maybe my range is incorrect for villain?)

Thanks
• Black
Joined: 21.01.2010
Well the range you gave him is wrong considering you put 9h8h and 8h7h in it and your holding 8h.

What his calling you on the flop is Kx and Qx, JT and some flush draws. The only possible combos of flush draws are Ax and maybe Th9h, Jh8h that has you beat and he might fold, maybe his not even folding Ax on this river since you can't really represent anything.

The main problem is that on the river you represent a busted flush pretty well and his not folding much of anything. Only thing you make him fold are those 3 better flushes and he might even call u down with A high considering you bet only 1/2 pot.

What did he call you down with anyway?
• Black
Joined: 02.11.2008
Well the range you gave him is wrong considering you put 9h8h and 8h7h in it and your holding 8h.