[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH - Weak boat 200bb deep

    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      SB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 3, 3.
      MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.35, BU folds, Hero calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25.

      Flop: ($1.4) 3, 7, 8 (4 players)
      Hero bets $1.15, BB folds, MP3 folds, CO calls $1.15.

      Turn: ($3.7) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.00, CO calls $2.00.

      River: ($7.7) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $4.70, Hero calls $4.70.

      Final Pot: $17.1.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows a full-house, threes full of sevens(3d 3c).
      CO shows a pair of sevens(Ts Jc).

      Hero wins with a full-house, threes full of sevens(3d 3c).

      Villain - 35/15/2.5AF/AFq 32%/FvsTCbet: 75%

      Would you check-raise the river vs someone like that?
      I initially decided to do so since he likes to chase weak draws and bluff them after missing, but I'm actually very weary of the fact that he very well might have the 76/78/88 there. Although I guess 78 should raise on such a wet multiway board, so 7x / 76 would be the more likely versions.
      I guess 99-JJ would/should usually raise me there as well since the PFR folded and I could be donking with anything - from top pair to overs+FD etc.

      And the last 10k hands I've played = every single session has been the same, I lose 3-5 stacks w/ coolers & beats and then grind them back for hours.

      So since we were deep as well, I should be happy with bluffcatching and maybe losing some thin value vs small overpairs?!
  • 2 replies
    • awishformore
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      I think it's OK if you want to play it safe. You have the lowest possible full house and I don't think he would call much to a check-raise.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Since he's bad:

      - I guess it's possible he shows up with better boats on the river some of the time, but really you'd expect most people to wake up sooner and raise with 88/78 on such a flop and 7x on the turn.

      - I don't think he necessarily raises an overpair earlier, it's just not as strong as sets/boats.

      - the depth of the stack is probably irrelevant to him especially it looks like a deep table, he probably bought in for whatever was available.

      So actually I think his range on the river is:

      - busted spades that he won't call a raise with anyway
      - T9 that will call any raise with
      - sometimes some kind of trips 7 / boat that he's not folding either
      - 99+ that he probably will call a small raise with

      So in a vacuum, I'm pretty happy about raising there. The only real problem is that I have no idea what he will decide to jam with, especially T9, so that pretty much commits us to calling a jam when in doubt, since raise/fold the best hand there would pretty disastrous.

      So overall it's on you to tip the balance if you have other opinions on these specifics points, personally I'd just take the chance to try and stack the fish right there hoping he'll overplay T9.

      Hope it helps.