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[NL2-NL10] NL10 AQ SB vs BB

    • awishformore
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      PokerStars - $0.10 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BTN: $5.69
      Hero (SB): $15.56
      BB: $10.87
      UTG: $11.26
      UTG+1: $10.00
      MP: $10.10
      MP+1: $9.90
      LP: $9.45
      CO: $10.00

      Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has Q:diamond: A:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.60, BB raises to $1.30, fold, Hero raises to $3.10, BB calls $1.80

      Flop: ($6.30, 2 players) 7:spade: 5:diamond: 8:club:
      Hero bets $3.70, BB raises to $7.50, Hero raises to $11.40, BB calls $0.27 and is all-in

      Turn: ($21.84, 2 players) 4:diamond:

      River: ($21.84, 2 players) 2:diamond:

      This was a really ugly spot. Opponent is a 36/12 fish with 6% 3bet, very rocky post-flop tendencies. I had been very active on this table, especially when isolating the huge fish limping on the button, so I think his 3betting range will be very loose. In my opinion, it will include at least TT+, possibly some suited connectors, AQ+, maybe AJ/99 or AT/88 even.

      I thus considered my 4bet to be for value. As I showed a lot of strength pre-flop, I was convinced that a cbet would make AJ/AQ/AJ/AT, TT-, maybe JJ or even QQ fold. However, I'm not sure I should have cbetted this big.

      After his shove, I almost get the odds to even call vs KK, so I have to go broke.

      Please point out where you think I played wrong and why, especially pre-flop and flop cbet.
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Well it's a bit weird, mostly you're treating villain both as a fish and as a thinking player.

      If he's a fish he's not going to adapt his ranges correctly and he might not even try to change anything just because you're raising a lot, meaning even if he does indeed start 3-betting wider, his range won't look like some AQ+/TT extended to AT+/88+ that you describe. He'll just 3bet with whatever decent looking hand he happens to have when he snaps and decides he won't let you get away with it.

      If he is a thinking player he might indeed decide to do something about it and adapt his ranges in a decent way, but he doesn't need nearly as tight a range as you describe because he actually expects you to just fold to the 3bet very often, and the fish to coldcall some of the time. So he'll mostly be looking to 3bet anything that plays decent against the fish's range, and take his chances in position against you if you happen to call.

      So overall if villain is adapting, his range is way wider than you think in my opinion. Obviously all of this assumes you're not totally overthinking it and villain isn't just exactly what he looks like he is, some rather passive fish that happened to wake up with a hand.

      Now that it's out of the way let's just assume you're not wrongly about him adapting. We're out of position against BB with a drawing hand, so we have two options.

      One, we 4-bet and get it in, hoping that the dead money we make from the times he 3bet/folds will make up for the equity disadvantage when we really do get it in against his likely damn-tight 5betting range.

      Two, we call out of position hoping to keep dominated hands in there. That will require you going broke postflop as soon as you get a pair, as well as pulling some moves like check/jamming two overcards on boards he's likely to have missed, to compensate for the fact that you won't hit a hand most of the time. Don't try that if villain plays the flop in a way that will prevent you from having fold equity, like you think he'll just c-bet shove anything it's a gross as you might have to actually check/call off AQ-high.

      Option one is way easier to play correctly but might not be as profitable than option two, depending on how villain plays postflop.

      As played on the flop, we're just trying to make villain fold very weak hands like you said, but the way the stacks are set up we can't really afford making a really small c-bet. Like, we'd need to make it something like $1.5 not to be priced into calling a jam, but $1.5 might not get him to fold anything right away, so it's only good if you can make good use of the information villain gives off when he doesn't fold. Like if you expect him to jam any pair over your weak c-bet, you know when he just calls he probably has nothing, then you can shove turns that don't make a 4-straight and get him to fold or call it off with worse overs.

      I'd suggest just making the c-bet that will look the scariest to villain in your opinion and calling it off, that includes possibly just open shoving the flop.

      Hope it helps.