[NL2-NL10] NL10 - AT folding nut str8

    • Southofheaven
      Southofheaven
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.03.2010 Posts: 301
      so villian is 16/12/2.0 VPIP/PFR/AGG - somewhat of a nitty guy.
      my thoughts on the hand:
      pre: i think AT is not super good to play postflop vs 2opp OOP but still not strong enough to squeeze into a MP raiser(?), so I think calling is probably better than folding.
      Flop: gives me gs to the nutstr8 and original raiser bets pretty big, so on that kind of board I usually cut his range down to 2pair+/AK/. the bu calls and I think overcalling for implied odds is fine.
      Turn: I expect sets and KQ to bet really big again vs 2 opponents so I go for a fairly small c/r on the turn to set up a shove on the river, but it checks around instead.
      River: now bd fd is here but it's not really important imo. shitty thing is that board pairs so now sets beat me. so I thought at that time B/F is best. but now that i think of it, would any set check the turn?


      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($16.57)
      Hero ($24.90)
      UTG ($10.32)
      UTG+1 ($14.12)
      CO ($10.10)
      BTN ($14.40)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: T:spade:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.20

      FLOP ($0.95) 5:diamond: K:heart: Q:club:

      Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.80, BTN calls $0.80, Hero calls $0.80

      TURN ($3.35) 5:diamond: K:heart: Q:club: J:heart:

      Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, BTN checks

      RIVER ($3.35) 5:diamond: K:heart: Q:club: J:heart: 5:heart:

      Hero bets $2.40, UTG+1 raises to $7.50, BTN folds, Hero folds

      UTG+1 wins $7.76
  • 2 replies
    • Southofheaven
      Southofheaven
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.03.2010 Posts: 301
      bump
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,

      Originally posted by Southofheaven
      so villian is 16/12/2.0 VPIP/PFR/AGG - somewhat of a nitty guy.
      my thoughts on the hand:
      pre: i think AT is not super good to play postflop vs 2opp OOP but still not strong enough to squeeze into a MP raiser(?), so I think calling is probably better than folding.
      Flop: gives me gs to the nutstr8 and original raiser bets pretty big, so on that kind of board I usually cut his range down to 2pair+/AK/. the bu calls and I think overcalling for implied odds is fine.
      Turn: I expect sets and KQ to bet really big again vs 2 opponents so I go for a fairly small c/r on the turn to set up a shove on the river, but it checks around instead.
      River: now bd fd is here but it's not really important imo. shitty thing is that board pairs so now sets beat me. so I thought at that time B/F is best. but now that i think of it, would any set check the turn?
      Preflop you don't need a stronger hand to squeeze than you do to overcall, for two main reasons. First, what you're worried about when you overcall is the playability of your hand rather than it's equity cold preflop. You're looking for hands that can make the nuts or flop big draws, stuff that doesn't force you to check/call down out of position. Second, because when you do indeed squeeze sometimes you'll get both of them to fold and rack up the money immediately, it actually gives you a decent overlay that makes the play profitable even if when you do get called, your hand is behind villain's range. So overall what we usually do is overcalling stuff like pocket pairs and suited connectors, whereas we turn offsuit broadway and bad Ax hands into squeezing hands. Hence I'd squeeze ATo here.

      On the flop, even after BU overcalls, you're getting only slightly better odds than 3:1 and you do know your pair outs are no good, that mean you're looking only for the gutshot. 47 cards left in the deck, 4 outs, ~11:1 needed. Since you're out of position, hence it being harder to get paid off even when you do it, it's probably more around 16:1 that you need. I'd still just fold.

      Turn is okay, tho like I said stuff like AK/AA might get scared and check behind, lowering your implied odds on the flop. So I'd actually donk out against a 16/12/2.0, because I expect him to get scared too often, that's just how he plays overall. He won't just fold AA/AK to a turn bet and he'll probably call a smallish river bet with those as well on blanks. As for sets and two pairs, he might raise them on the turn which is mighty fine by us.

      River we should definitely lead, but once raised it's a bit puzzling. Maybe once in a while he checked back KQ on the turn and now figures we led out with AK so he can valueraise or something but I doubt it. I wouldn't put it past him to check back the turn with a set like JJ sometimes, nits are nits for a reason. Hard to put him on the backdoor flush, it would have to be exactly AhTh since I just don't buy him c-betting the flop so big with AhQh. That said I don't think he's ever bluffing either. I'd say our best bet is probably to lead out a bit bigger to discourage stuff like KQ maybe AT attempting a valueraise, and still fold to the raise no matter how narrow his range seems.


      Hope it helps.