[NL20-NL50] Gay fold or what?

    • Zemnieks11
      Zemnieks11
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2009 Posts: 567
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Entraction
      Hero ($40.94)
      BB ($30.19)
      UTG ($7.03)
      UTG+1 ($38.76)
      CO ($9.60)
      BTN ($21.75)

      Dealt to Hero 7:club: 5:club:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.20, Hero calls $0.10, BB checks

      FLOP ($0.60) Q:club: A:club: 5:spade:

      Hero bets $0.45, BB folds, BTN calls $0.45

      TURN ($1.50) Q:club: A:club: 5:spade: 6:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      RIVER ($1.50) Q:club: A:club: 5:spade: 6:spade: K:club:

      Hero bets $1.12, BTN raises to $21.10 (AI), Hero folds

      BTN wins $3.56
      Gay fold or what?
      Opp. unknown.
  • 14 replies
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      no, i fold too. risk/reward ratio sucks.
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Hi,

      bet turn 1,25$.
      If getting called bet/c river 3$.
      As played: Your hand looks so weak, so I'd call. Although risk/reward ratio sucks. Villain can bluff you off with Ax, 2pair, straight, set, TT.....

      Best regards,
      Anin
    • Zemnieks11
      Zemnieks11
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2009 Posts: 567
      Originally posted by AninIII
      Hi,

      bet turn 1,25$.
      If getting called bet/c river 3$.
      As played: Your hand looks so weak, so I'd call. Although risk/reward ratio sucks. Villain can bluff you off with Ax, 2pair, straight, set, TT.....

      Best regards,
      Anin
      Yeah thats the point i plyed it super weak and they can bluff off my line easy but would they bluff shove? Almost never seen a bluff shove when pot is so small at these stakes..and even i do such things with nutz like quads.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Exactly, villain doesnt need to shove in order to bluff. He could achieve the same with raise to $5.

      When he shoves 10x pot, you need a better hand than 7 high flush to call, imo. Or rather, you need very solid reads he's capable of this before you consider it. Against unknown, I just make a note of his play and fold.
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Exactly, villain doesnt need to shove in order to bluff. He could achieve the same with raise to $5.

      When he shoves 10x pot, you need a better hand than 7 high flush to call, imo. Or rather, you need very solid reads he's capable of this before you consider it. Against unknown, I just make a note of his play and fold.
      But that's exactly the point:
      If he raises to 5$ with a bluff you call with your flush....
      With pushing he has either nuts or air.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      I agree with the principle of what you're saying: when he over bet shoves, his hand is either: nuts or air. That's clear.

      So, let's think about what his range is. We don't have any information on villain, so his value range is any flush. First, against these possible flushes {JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc6c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc6c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c6c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c6c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c} we only have 21.4% equity on the River.

      we risk $19.98 to win $23.72, so we need 45.72% equity here. If we only have 21.4% equity, we must fold. So therefore villain must be bluffing some proportion of the time to justify a call, to make up for the times when we call and villain has a better flush.

      Obviously, if villain is bluffing >50% of the time, we can call.

      However, if villain is bluffing only 30% of the time, we get:

      0.3* 23.72 = $7.116 plus
      0.7* 0.214* $43.70 = $6.54 less

      0.7* $19.98 = $13.99 (cost of call*% of time villain is not bluffing)

      = -$0.33

      Well, I'm not sure if I did the calculation correct - maybe someone can confirm? However I think you can see that we need to be pretty sure that villain is bluffing a reasonable amount here to justify a call. We can't just say he either has nuts or air.
      (ofc, if he never shoves low flushes, he needs to be bluffing 45% of the time - in my opinion that's unlikely given the size of his bet. Maybe you are right that $5 is not enough to get us to fold our flushes but I don't think he needs to bet $20, so I would say, generally, his overbet 10x pot is more heavily weighted to nutz).

      Edit: I just checked this with a very intelligent friend, he gave me the following equation:

      EV = F(vb) x (0.214xP - 0.786xC) + F(bl) x P

      where:
      F(vb) is frequency of value bet,
      F(bl) is frequency of bluff,
      F(vb) = 1-F(bl),
      P is pot that we can win (excluding amount of our call),
      C is amount of our call, and
      and 0.214 is our equity.

      so, for breakeven:

      EV = F(vb) x (0.214xP - 0.786xC) + F(bl) x P
      0 = F(vb) x ($5.080 - $15.70) + F(bl) x P
      0 = F(vb) x (-$10.62) + F(bl) x P
      0 = F(vb) x (-$10.62) + (1-F(vb)) x P
      0 = -$10.62 F(vb) + 23.72 - 23.72 F(vb)
      F(vb) = $23.72/-$34.34
      F(vb) = 0.69
      F (bl) = 0.31

      So, villain must be bluffing at least 31% of the time given the above assumptions.
    • kevvu
      kevvu
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 1,527
      A lot of math ;) . Too much pressure for nl20 player :D .
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      ^^
      Well, I don't understand the math either - i just repeat what others tell me and take the credit.
    • Zemnieks11
      Zemnieks11
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2009 Posts: 567
      Originally posted by AninIII
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Exactly, villain doesnt need to shove in order to bluff. He could achieve the same with raise to $5.

      When he shoves 10x pot, you need a better hand than 7 high flush to call, imo. Or rather, you need very solid reads he's capable of this before you consider it. Against unknown, I just make a note of his play and fold.
      But that's exactly the point:
      If he raises to 5$ with a bluff you call with your flush....
      With pushing he has either nuts or air.
      If he would put me on flush he wouldn't bluff cos a lot of people would never fold that.
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Originally posted by Zemnieks11
      Originally posted by AninIII
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Exactly, villain doesnt need to shove in order to bluff. He could achieve the same with raise to $5.

      When he shoves 10x pot, you need a better hand than 7 high flush to call, imo. Or rather, you need very solid reads he's capable of this before you consider it. Against unknown, I just make a note of his play and fold.
      But that's exactly the point:
      If he raises to 5$ with a bluff you call with your flush....
      With pushing he has either nuts or air.
      If he would put me on flush he wouldn't bluff cos a lot of people would never fold that.
      That's true.
      BUT on NL20 fishes don't think about your hand too much.
      I don't say that it's bad to fold, maybe even the best play; at least to save some variance.
      BUT the way you played the hand I assume that he thinks he can bluff you off whatever you have with whatever he has.

      Let's see what the judges say.
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Originally posted by Tim64
      I agree with the principle of what you're saying: when he over bet shoves, his hand is either: nuts or air. That's clear.

      So, let's think about what his range is. We don't have any information on villain, so his value range is any flush. First, against these possible flushes {JcTc, Jc9c, Jc8c, Jc6c, Jc4c, Jc3c, Jc2c, Tc9c, Tc8c, Tc6c, Tc4c, Tc3c, Tc2c, 9c8c, 9c6c, 9c4c, 9c3c, 9c2c, 8c6c, 8c4c, 8c3c, 8c2c, 6c4c, 6c3c, 6c2c, 4c3c, 4c2c, 3c2c} we only have 21.4% equity on the River.

      we risk $19.98 to win $23.72, so we need 45.72% equity here. If we only have 21.4% equity, we must fold. So therefore villain must be bluffing some proportion of the time to justify a call, to make up for the times when we call and villain has a better flush.

      Obviously, if villain is bluffing >50% of the time, we can call.

      However, if villain is bluffing only 30% of the time, we get:

      0.3* 23.72 = $7.116 plus
      0.7* 0.214* $43.70 = $6.54 less

      0.7* $19.98 = $13.99 (cost of call*% of time villain is not bluffing)

      = -$0.33

      Well, I'm not sure if I did the calculation correct - maybe someone can confirm? However I think you can see that we need to be pretty sure that villain is bluffing a reasonable amount here to justify a call. We can't just say he either has nuts or air.
      (ofc, if he never shoves low flushes, he needs to be bluffing 45% of the time - in my opinion that's unlikely given the size of his bet. Maybe you are right that $5 is not enough to get us to fold our flushes but I don't think he needs to bet $20, so I would say, generally, his overbet 10x pot is more heavily weighted to nutz).

      Edit: I just checked this with a very intelligent friend, he gave me the following equation:

      EV = F(vb) x (0.214xP - 0.786xC) + F(bl) x P

      where:
      F(vb) is frequency of value bet,
      F(bl) is frequency of bluff,
      F(vb) = 1-F(bl),
      P is pot that we can win (excluding amount of our call),
      C is amount of our call, and
      and 0.214 is our equity.

      so, for breakeven:

      EV = F(vb) x (0.214xP - 0.786xC) + F(bl) x P
      0 = F(vb) x ($5.080 - $15.70) + F(bl) x P
      0 = F(vb) x (-$10.62) + F(bl) x P
      0 = F(vb) x (-$10.62) + (1-F(vb)) x P
      0 = -$10.62 F(vb) + 23.72 - 23.72 F(vb)
      F(vb) = $23.72/-$34.34
      F(vb) = 0.69
      F (bl) = 0.31

      So, villain must be bluffing at least 31% of the time given the above assumptions.
      That's true.
      But you give villain only flushes in his "valuerange".
      Keep the following in mind: 32s is the same hand as JT = straight
      So villain fish can think by himself "I has straight, villain doesn't have a flush because he played so weak and so I valuepush..."´
      I have often seen this type of play.
      Maybe he even pushes sets or Acesup, fe. A6, A5 thinking this is a valuepush.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Well I agree, once we add non-flush value range, our eQuity of course improves drastically, and we can think hard about calling.

      But I feel we need reads (or at least some stats) to tell us whether we are playing against a fish who might think his set/straight = "nutz".

      Problem for me is that we dont seem to have such information. All we know is that we bet the flush and villain overbet shoves by a massive amount. So, in order to justify the call, we either need to know villain bluffs a reasonable amount or need to have good reason to think he is bad enough to value-push "near-nutz" hands.

      Thing is, when he pushes here, it doesnt make sense if he wants us to call with our two pair type hands. (i.e. he has a straight/set and he wants us to call with AQ or whatever). He would be more likely to bet some smaller amount, generally.

      My final thought here is that calling here is never a massive mistake, becuase - after all - we have a flush. But since 1. we have limited info on villain, 2. we get relatively bad odds because pot is so small relative to stack sizes, and 3. our flush is rather low, I prefer the fold since it represents a less expensive mistake. (i.e. when villain is bluffing or mistakenly value shoving "near nutz" hands, he wins around $2.50 if we fold, but when we call and he is not bluffing we lose $20).
    • Shevtshenko
      Shevtshenko
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2009 Posts: 4,087
      vs. unknown there's no reason to start leveling yourself to make bad calls. Just muck and proceed.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Shevtshenko
      vs. unknown there's no reason to start leveling yourself to make bad calls. Just muck and proceed.
      +1
      I also think pot is too small to get really high variance spot a dn when they shove they tend to have nuts, so fold is fine