# [NL2-NL10] AK on the flop -Outs, Odds, Implied Odds and equity

• Bronze
Joined: 27.05.2007
Hello,

Example:

OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, \$0.10 BB (9 handed) by Hand Converter CG

MP2 (\$10.95)
MP3 (\$8.20)
CO (\$3.30)
Button (\$8.90)
SB (\$7.70)
BB (\$3.40)
UTG (\$10.30)
Hero (\$1.70)
MP1 (\$9.90)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A , K .
1 fold, Hero raises to \$0.4, 3 folds, CO calls \$0.40, Button calls \$0.40, 2 folds.

Flop: (\$1.35) 2 , T , Q (3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets \$0.5, Button calls \$0.50, Hero ...?

Step 1. Calcualting discounted outs
- 3 outs for overcards
- 4 for gutshot
= 7 clean outs against 2 opponents

Step 2. Calculating odds:

- 40/7 = 5.7:1 - turn
- approx. the same for river 5.7:1

since we are going to push all-in, we have to calculate odds for flop-river:

1/6.7 + (5.7/6.7 * 1/6.7) = 1/3.6 = 2.6 : 1

Question 1:
The article says:

Once you know the equity of a particular situation, you can derive the odds to win the hand in the end. If Pokerstove, for instance, predicts an equity of 35% you will win in 35 in 100 cases. This is correlating odds of 65:35. So in 100 cases there are 35 favourable and 65 unfavourable events. When you cancel down and round this, you receive odds of 1.86:1. This way, you can easily involve Pokerstove analysis into your play.

If we simulate this hand in Pokerstove, we get 43% against two random opponents... following the logic of the article:

57:43= 1.3 : 1 - twice less then our odds calculated above Why?

Step 3. Calculating Pot odds:

call option:
Pot: 2.35
=> 2.35/0.5= 4.7 : 1

compare with odds for turn 4.7 : 1 < 5.7 : 1
conclusion: call is not the option

all-in option :

Pot: 2.35
i push all-in 1.30

two scenarios (not counting fold equity):

1) 1 opp. calls:
2.35+0.8(call)/1.30= 2.4 : 1 < 2.6 : 1 (flop-river odds)

2) two opp. call:
2.35+0.8*2/1.3= 3 : 1 > 2.6 : 1

In the second scenario we are getting good implied odds. In the first case our odds are slightly bigger than pot odds, but I think we should discount less outs for our overcards against two opponents. Lets say 2 instead of 3. then we are getting positive odds even against one caller...

Here comes the question number 2:
Am I correct? and in case I am why should I fold according to the SSS?