[NL2-NL10] AK on the flop -Outs, Odds, Implied Odds and equity

    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Hello,

      Can you please help with calculating odds, pot odds and equity.

      Example:

      OnGame's Room No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) by Hand Converter CG

      MP2 ($10.95)
      MP3 ($8.20)
      CO ($3.30)
      Button ($8.90)
      SB ($7.70)
      BB ($3.40)
      UTG ($10.30)
      Hero ($1.70)
      MP1 ($9.90)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A:spade: , K:club: .
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.4, 3 folds, CO calls $0.40, Button calls $0.40, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($1.35) 2:heart: , T:club: , Q:spade: (3 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $0.5, Button calls $0.50, Hero ...?

      Step 1. Calcualting discounted outs
      - 3 outs for overcards
      - 4 for gutshot
      = 7 clean outs against 2 opponents

      Step 2. Calculating odds:

      - 40/7 = 5.7:1 - turn
      - approx. the same for river 5.7:1

      since we are going to push all-in, we have to calculate odds for flop-river:

      1/6.7 + (5.7/6.7 * 1/6.7) = 1/3.6 = 2.6 : 1

      Question 1:
      The article says:


      Once you know the equity of a particular situation, you can derive the odds to win the hand in the end. If Pokerstove, for instance, predicts an equity of 35% you will win in 35 in 100 cases. This is correlating odds of 65:35. So in 100 cases there are 35 favourable and 65 unfavourable events. When you cancel down and round this, you receive odds of 1.86:1. This way, you can easily involve Pokerstove analysis into your play.



      If we simulate this hand in Pokerstove, we get 43% against two random opponents... following the logic of the article:

      57:43= 1.3 : 1 - twice less then our odds calculated above Why?

      Step 3. Calculating Pot odds:

      call option:
      Pot: 2.35
      => 2.35/0.5= 4.7 : 1

      compare with odds for turn 4.7 : 1 < 5.7 : 1
      conclusion: call is not the option

      all-in option :

      Pot: 2.35
      i push all-in 1.30

      two scenarios (not counting fold equity):

      1) 1 opp. calls:
      2.35+0.8(call)/1.30= 2.4 : 1 < 2.6 : 1 (flop-river odds)

      2) two opp. call:
      2.35+0.8*2/1.3= 3 : 1 > 2.6 : 1

      In the second scenario we are getting good implied odds. In the first case our odds are slightly bigger than pot odds, but I think we should discount less outs for our overcards against two opponents. Lets say 2 instead of 3. then we are getting positive odds even against one caller...

      Here comes the question number 2:
      Am I correct? and in case I am why should I fold according to the SSS?
  • 1 reply
    • Laurenz1988
      Laurenz1988
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.09.2007 Posts: 180
      You put in random in pokerstove, but that isnt correct. Plus u dont even have 7 clean outs, since one of ur opponents could have the ace and the other the king. U cant quite calculate ur equity here since u dont know the villains hands.