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[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR - Folding Aces vs nit turn c/r

    • Kaabr
      Joined: 20.11.2009 Posts: 91
      Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 976050
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BTN): $10.00
      SB: $15.70
      BB: $13.44
      UTG: $24.86
      UTG+1: $10.00
      MP: $10.10
      CO: $3.30

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A :heart: A :club:
      UTG raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.70

      Flop: ($2.15) 7 :heart: J :diamond: 4 :diamond: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG calls $1.50

      Turn: ($5.15) 7 :spade: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $3, UTG raises to $7.50, Hero ?

      Villain is 9/5/2 - 15k hands
      Raise 1st 5% EP
      18% fold to 3bet
      0.2% 4bet range

      I can only put him on JJ.
      AA/KK he'd 4bet
      I don't see he doin it with QQ.
      AKs he would semibluff the flop, don't see he doin it with one card to come.

      He sized his c/r to match what I had left. :tongue:

  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      15k hands is a pretty large sample and 0.2% 4-bet range is really damn small. Clearly means he's capable of flatting QQ+ preflop there. Whether he'd actually check/raise the turn with those we're not sure. That said he shouldn't have 7x/44 too often and there are 4 times more QQ-KK out there than JJ, so we can't fold really unless we're dead-sure he never does that with QQ+.

      You'll encounter players thinking along the lines of "well i'll slowplay until it looks like everybody is committed, then i'll shove the rest in", which dictates QQ-KK check/jam that turn. And it's good, since the alternative is check/calling and then either open shoving the river which looks gross, or risking you checking back worse hands which is disastrous. Actually it fits quite good with him just putting enough to get you all-in as well, as a "eheh, now we can get the rest in" move.

      Hope it helps.