[NL20-NL50] AKo vs. set(?)

    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Villain is a regular, very good TAG with the best winrate from my regular opponents. I figured that he has trips, because with flush, I thought, he would not bet this way. I went AI, because I figured that odds are slightly in my favour. Was I wrong? Please evaluate:

      $0.15/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
      Everest Poker
      9 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($16.19)
      UTG+1 ($23.65)
      MP1 ($42.10)
      MP2 ($21.75)
      MP3 ($18.20)
      CO ($10)
      BTN ($9.20)
      Hero ($24.75)
      BB ($24.70)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.40, 9 players) Hero is SB A:spade: K:heart:
      UTG raises to $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 5 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, 1 fold, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $1.75

      Flop: 6:spade: 9:spade: 8:spade: ($5.25, 2 players)
      Hero bets $3.05, UTG+1 goes all-in $21.40, Hero calls $18.35
  • 5 replies
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Originally posted by SilverSag
      Villain is a regular, very good TAG with the best winrate from my regular opponents. UTG+1 ($23.65)
      Hi,

      I don't understand it.
      You say he is a regular and sits down with less than 100BB?
      Then he calls a minraise of a potential fish and overcalls your 3-bet FR?
      This seems to me not the best move, but it screams SMALL POCKETPAIR.

      Given that info, he has there set 95% of the time and wants to protect.
      Against set you have 9 outs ~ 36%. (I don't have an equilator right now.)
      You have to call 18,35$ to win 29,70$.
      You need 18,35/(18,35+29,70)~38%. => Fold if he only has sets.
      BUT: If he has overpairs with one spade in his range + random bluffs or straight or one-card FD, too. => +EV spot

      What did he have?

      Best regards,
      Anin

      P.S.: Villain can't have trips on that board, only sets. (check title)
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Originally posted by AninIII
      Originally posted by SilverSag
      Villain is a regular, very good TAG with the best winrate from my regular opponents. UTG+1 ($23.65)
      Hi,

      I don't understand it.
      You say he is a regular and sits down with less than 100BB?
      Then he calls a minraise of a potential fish and overcalls your 3-bet FR?
      This seems to me not the best move, but it screams SMALL POCKETPAIR.

      Given that info, he has there set 95% of the time and wants to protect.
      Against set you have 9 outs ~ 36%. (I don't have an equilator right now.)
      You have to call 18,35$ to win 29,70$.
      You need 18,35/(18,35+29,70)~38%. => Fold if he only has sets.
      BUT: If he has overpairs with one spade in his range + random bluffs or straight or one-card FD, too. => +EV spot

      What did he have?

      Best regards,
      Anin

      P.S.: Villain can't have trips on that board, only sets. (check title)
      Hi :)

      I don't understand what is there so difficult to understand :D He is a regular and by that I mean that he is one of my top 10 most encountered opponents. That has nothing to do with how good or bad he is. I have regulars who regularly lose money as well. This one keeps winning and wins a lot - his winrate on 8000+ hands I have on him is ~30 bb/100h.

      About his stack. On Everest there is only something like a half a second window, when you can rebuy for next hand, which is almost impossible to do if you are multitabling, so it is possible that he lost previous hand and did not manage to rebuy fast enough. That means nothing, it happens to me a lot as well.

      OK, so it seems that I judged his hand correctly but miscalculated odds and should have folded :f_cry: ...then again - he COULD still have only a pair... :f_p:

      p.s. I was under the impression that "set" and "trips" is the same thing - 3 of a kind, or am I wrong on this one too?
    • Hajler
      Hajler
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.10.2008 Posts: 270
      A set is three of a kind using both of your hole cards and one community card, while trips is when you make three of a kind with one hole card and two community cards. Since the board isn't paired he can't have trips. :f_cool:

      Also for what it's worth I also think he will have a set here or maybe a weak flush pretty much every time. Since you have a lot of hands on this guy and play with him a lot it might be a good idea to take a look at his hands and see how he has played in similar spots/if he make spewy bluffs on a boards like that.

      Good luck.
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Originally posted by Hajler
      A set is three of a kind using both of your hole cards and one community card, while trips is when you make three of a kind with one hole card and two community cards. Since the board isn't paired he can't have trips. :f_cool:
      Thanks for that. This bit of information has somehow escaped my attention. :f_biggrin:

      Yeah, I will check him out. I have never noticed him making this kind of bet before. He usually is pretty sensible and plays pretty much ABC poker (as far as I can tell that is :D )
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      with nut flushdraw can´t really play any other hand
      If you think he is b/c there with 99/66/88, then he can play the same way 77 and maybe also some high overcards+flushdraw, like AQs