[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH AQ oop

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($82.25)
      BB ($55.25)
      UTG ($50)
      CO ($50)
      BTN ($40.60)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: Q:diamond:

      UTG raises to $1.75, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5.50, fold, UTG calls $3.75

      FLOP ($11.50) T:diamond: J:club: 7:diamond:

      Hero bets $7.50, UTG folds

      Hero shows A:spade: Q:diamond:

      Hero wins $10.95

      villain is 19/16/2, 250 hands, fold v 3b 50% (6), 4b% 0. villain is a winning reg on this limit. the last time we played, he three bet me quite a lot in position and even called a few of my bluff 4bs, floating me or raising my cbets post-flop.

      When he calls my 3b here I would say his range is mostly 22-AA, AK/AQo, JJ+, maybe also some suited broadways such as JQs, QKs, TJs. Say: {77+, AQs+, A5s, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, AQo+ - 108 combos}.

      we don't do so well against this range with only about 30% equity on the flop, but if we cb, we probably get called by: {TT+, 77, Ad5d, KdQd, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s - 60 combos}, so he folds around 45% of the time. given this, I think our cbet should be profitable.

      Did I miss anything?
      p.s. we have a gut shot which of course also helps. Can we give any weight to our back door flush draw?

      Thanks
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      this is not really the worst board to your hand, so c-bet is perfectly fine . Against J9/t9/88 you have 10 outs that is enough to at least c-bet
      You can barrel with club, although I think also very reasonable line would be c/rai for example 5d, so backdoor flusdraw helps a little your equity against his range
      I personally think he is not 3-bet/calling every pp and would likely also 4-bet often at least AK. Also not sure how often he would call 3-bet with 89s or T9s.
      Players usually fold them if you 3-bet them from utg
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Thanks,

      Just to check,

      You can barrel with club


      Did you mean "with diamond"?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Thanks,

      Just to check,

      You can barrel with club


      Did you mean "with diamond"?
      yeah, meant diamond :)