QQ on the bubble

    • muel294
      muel294
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,207
      Hi all

      I was just re-reading the "High Blind Play" section of SNG strategy by collin moshman and came across an interesting example hand under the heading of Bubble Play.

      I was just wondering whether this particular example would apply to micro SNG's (eg 1.20's)

      Blinds:t200-t400, t25 ante, 4 players

      Your Hand: QsQc (t5,000) in the BB

      Action to you: Preflop: Reckless UTG (t5000) pushes all-in. You believe this to be consistent with any ace, pocket pair, or two face cards. The BU (t1500) and SB (t2000) both fold

      Call or fold?


      So we have roughly 11BB and an M of 7, so according to the rebound chart in the BB we should be calling AA-JJ all in here.

      However:

      Moshman reccommends a fold here due to ICM. Calling and losing is a disaster and sends our vast equity to 0. Whilst calling and winning in this spot transfers the majority of the UTG equity to the two shorstacks who literally make money by folding.

      I fully understand that the situation is dependant on stack sizes of us and our opponents and if we were a shorter stack then this is a clear push.

      My main question is that given a similar situation in the micros does this concept apply or should we always get our money in here, despite the shorter stacks due to bust?
  • 3 replies
    • malosanmaka
      malosanmaka
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 508
      Talking about QQ on the bubble, BB's call here has to be one of the worst bubble calls in history LOL

      No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 300/600 Blinds (4 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Hero (UTG) (t3805)
      Button (t5940)
      SB (t2095)
      BB (t1660)

      Hero's M: 4.23

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
      Hero bets t3755, Button calls t3755, 1 fold, BB calls t1010

      Flop: (t9420) 2, 5, 9 (3 players)

      Turn: (t9420) 4 (3 players)

      River: (t9420) 6 (3 players)

      Total pot: t9420

      Results:
      Button had A, A (one pair, Aces).
      BB had J, 10 (high card, Jack).
      Hero had Q, Q (one pair, Queens).
      Outcome: Button won t9620
    • Aizeral
      Aizeral
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2010 Posts: 17
      Shortstacked, getting 7:1 odds to call and down to 1BB after the blinds have passed. Seems reasonable enough tbh.

      EDIT: Didnt factor in the On the Bubble. obv should have sat tight and aimed for the 3rd place. My bad.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      In the second situation, the BB needs to be extremely tight when overcalling because of the multiway penalty. If the BB calls, he needs to beat both players to avoid bubbling out, while he has a good chance to make the money by folding (the chip leader should be way ahead of the CO's range to get involved). The BB should fold some very good hands even if it is only 1 chip to call. Some players do not understand this, and will make terrible overcalls due to pot odds.

      In the first hand, I would call, but it is a close decision. While you need to be very risk-averse against the other big stack, QQ has enough equity to call.

      Fold: 4575 chips, 0.3168, SD: $13.93
      Win: 10250 chips, 0.4486
      Lose: 0 chips, 0
      Tie: 5125 chips, 0.3323

      Equity needed: 70.63%
      Chip odds: 44.63%
      Risk premium: 26%

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 28.860% 28.46% 00.40% 160340360 2243950.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
      Hand 1: 71.140% 70.74% 00.40% 398519756 2243950.00 { QcQd }

      By the way, the CO should push a wider range, so that QQ becomes a clear call, and JJ and even TT may become calls. In practice, most players are not good enough to push ATC from the CO for more than 10 bb even though it will rarely get called.