why can't I push ATC in this spot?

  • 1 reply
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      First, this isn't the bubble. With 4 equal stacks, it is often right to push ATC or close from the SB. With 5 equal stacks, you can't count on that level of risk aversion.

      Second, the big blind covers you by a lot. This means the big blind is not that risk-averse against you, while you are risk-averse against him. Numerically, here are the tie factors:

      Tie Factors:
      ------ 3370 1210 2840 2830 3250
      3370 ------ 53.3 61.1 61.1 63.8
      1210 55.9 ------ 55.9 55.8 56.3
      2840 63.0 53.8 ------ 62.4 63.3
      2830 62.9 53.8 62.4 ------ 63.2
      3250 64.3 53.7 61.8 61.7 ------

      When you push, here is what it looks like from his perspective:

      Fold: 3170 chips, 0.2283, SD: $16.97
      Win: 4580 chips, 0.3013
      Lose: 2160 chips, 0.1684
      Tie: 3370 chips, 0.2393

      Equity needed: 45.07%
      Chip odds: 41.74%
      Risk premium: 3.33%

      If the stacks were reversed, the big blind would need 48% equity, much higher, so that a wide push would have much more folding equity. Even then, you couldn't push ATC, but you could push closer to an 80% range against a Nash caller. As the stacks are, the Nash pushing range is closer to 60%.