[NL20-NL50] 5B shove with AJs?

    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      iPoker - £0.50 NL - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BTN: £48.42 VP:25/PR:21/Attempt to steal :34%/from LP 4B:15% (8/55hands)
      SB: £48.69
      Hero (BB): £52.04
      UTG: £52.84
      CO: £27.21

      SB posts SB £0.25, Hero posts BB £0.50

      Pre Flop: (£0.75) Hero has A:club: J:club:

      fold, fold, BTN raises to £1.50, fold, Hero raises to £5.00, BTN raises to £11.00, fold

      Based on his 4B % (only 55 hands though) in LP should I 5B shove with AJs?
  • 4 replies
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      I think it's close.
      His 4b range is around 5.1% (15% of 34%). Assume he calls our shove with JJ+AK+, we have 29.5% eQuity.

      This would be around 3% range meaning he folds 40% of the time to our shove.

      So ev(shove)= fe*$16.25+(1-fe)*(equity when called*$96.84-43.42$)
      ev(shove)= 0.4*$16.25+ .6*((.295*$96.84)-43.42$)
      ev(shove)= $6.5 + -$8.9
      ev(shove)= -$2.4

      So it looks slightly -EV. In fact, if he's calling it off with AQ then its definitely bad since our equity doesnt change but he folds a lot less combos.

      You might check how often he calls 3b from blinds, ip. If he often calls his stronger hands then his 4b range is more heavily weighted to bluffs and our feq is much higher.
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Ok I'll do the maths as well, see if we get the same result!

      EV (shove)=0.4*18.25+0.6*(0.295*100.46)-46.54
      = -2.84

      there is 18.25 dead in the pot. And I have to pay 46.54 to win 100.46? Or I am doing this wrong??

      Anyways it is slighlty -EV.


      Question for the judge (or others). Vs someone that thend to steal and 4B a lot.
      Wouldn't it be good to fight back even with a slightly -EV move in order to stop him. Should be + EV in the long term if he then steal much less??
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      there is 18.25 dead in the pot. And I have to pay 46.54 to win 100.46? Or I am doing this wrong??


      So pot before villain's raise is $0.75, he bets $1.5 and we raise to $5 so now there is $2.25+5.00 = $7.25 (except we have to take off our $0.50 as we included it already in the $2.25), so $6.75. Then villain raises to $11 so he invests another $9.50 on top of his original $1.5, so we get $6.75+$9.5 = $16.25 ( I think :) )

      Also, villain's starting stack is $48.42 and we have more $ than him, so final pot cannot be bigger than 2* his stack + the small blind = $97.09

      You got $46.54 by taking your starting stack of $52.04 and taking off $0.5 (BB) and your raise of $5.00. But remember that you don't risk your whole stack since villain has less $ than you and also remember not to count the BB twice (when you raise to $5.00 in total, it's actually $0.5 plus $4.50 more.)
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      you can also add his 4-bet/calling range middle pp-s and I think once he 4-bets with AQ he isn´t really going to fold
      But AJs is just too strong to 3-bet fold, so 4-bet/call and playing postflop, since you dominate a lot of his Ax hands that he is 4-bet bluffing but won´t really call shove
      So both shove or call is fine there once you 3-bet AJs