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[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - JJ set, flushed turn - 120 deep

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($71.40)
      Hero ($63.35)
      UTG ($52.55)
      UTG+1 ($103)
      CO ($77.45)
      BTN ($75.85)

      Dealt to Hero J:spade: J:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, Hero calls $1

      FLOP ($4.50) 4:heart: J:club: 5:club:

      SB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50, BTN folds

      TURN ($13.50) 4:heart: J:club: 5:club: 8:club:

      SB bets $6.75, Hero calls $6.75

      RIVER ($27) 4:heart: J:club: 5:club: 8:club: K:diamond:

      [color=red]SB bets $13.50, Hero?

      villain 10/5/1, 64 hands. Looks like pretty tight, nitty set-minor stats. I don't see many suited connectors (except AKs) in this range, so on balance do you think we have enough for a raise on the River?
      if so, how much?
      Should we be raising flop to make it more likely we get it in when villain does have lower set?

      BU is 24/16, 73 hs, steal only 20. Because SB looks super tight and maybe trapping from time to time I don't want to squeeze hand have to fold to 4b.

      Other thoughts?

  • 2 replies
    • aelfewulf
      Joined: 09.12.2009 Posts: 28
      I wouldn't slow play the flop, there's a flush draw and facing 2 opps. Raise!
      Raise to gain initiative in position vs SB.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      When Sb pots he seems to have there two pair or set a lot of times or maybe some kind of very strong draw
      So to me it is easy raise for value with top set unless board get scarier for him and you
      Once you called flop calldown is fine. You´re very likely ahead against sets, but not sure that he would call your river shove.
      And to me it is easy 3-bet pf. SB would 3-bet there QQ+ so don´t really see why you should just call as strong hand as JJ