[NL2-NL10] nl10 trips AK deep vs fish mini raise, help needed

    • Janosikgdy
      Janosikgdy
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2007 Posts: 4,472
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($10.10)
      BB ($11.84)
      Hero ($19.38)
      CO ($10.30)
      BTN ($27.67)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: K:heart:

      Hero raises to $0.40, CO calls $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, fold, BB calls $0.30

      FLOP ($1.65) Q:heart: A:spade: 3:club:

      BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, CO folds, BTN calls $1.25, BB folds

      TURN ($4.15) Q:heart: A:spade: 3:club: A:diamond:

      Hero bets $3.40, BTN calls $3.40

      RIVER ($10.95) Q:heart: A:spade: 3:club: A:diamond: J:diamond:

      Hero bets $5.50, BTN raises to $11, ?
  • 2 replies
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      I'm not 100% sure on his preflop calling range here, but say its A6s+,A9o+ and 33 (that could all still be there with this action)

      Against that range you're 54% to win and none of that range is folding so i'd ship it.

      It changes pretty quick though if you make it A7s+,ATo+,33 then you're 45% to win. So its still a call but not a shove.

      I'd never fold here but depends on how much of a fish you think he is as to wether or not you ship it for extra value.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,

      Originally posted by bradomurder
      I'm not 100% sure on his preflop calling range here, but say its A6s+,A9o+ and 33 (that could all still be there with this action)

      Against that range you're 54% to win and none of that range is folding so i'd ship it.

      It changes pretty quick though if you make it A7s+,ATo+,33 then you're 45% to win. So its still a call but not a shove.

      I'd never fold here but depends on how much of a fish you think he is as to whether or not you ship it for extra value.
      Sounds about right. You can't discount the fish minraising Ax there and since you beat them all, there is no way you're folding with all that dead money in the pot unless you're pretty damn sure he wouldn't play a worse Ax that way (maybe he always raises the turn or he's decent enough that he wouldn't raise the river).

      I'd shove as well for the remaining few bucks and hope he shows Ax, which are still a lot more numerous then 33/AQ/AJ assuming he plays a lot of them.


      Hope it helps.