[NL2-NL10] KJo, think I overplayed it

    • bradomurder
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      Only 10 hands on villian, he's playing 50/30 but that probably doesn't mean much

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($15.18)
      BB ($5.41)
      Hero ($10.40)
      CO ($17.74)
      BTN ($9.49)

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: J:diamond:

      Hero raises to $0.40, fold, BTN calls $0.40, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.95) 8:club: K:spade: Q:spade:

      Hero bets $0.65, BTN calls $0.65

      TURN ($2.25) 8:club: K:spade: Q:spade: J:club:

      Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

      RIVER ($5.25) 8:club: K:spade: Q:spade: J:club: 8:diamond:

      Hero bets $3, BTN raises to $6.94 (AI), Hero calls $3.94

      Getting 3.85:1 on the river and his line not quite making sense is what made me call, I really don't know if it was the right option. Do you think I'm right by assuming he almost never has an 8? I think AT is possible as is KQ dunno what else beats me.

      Maybe I could have played c/c on the river?

      I'll post results after people have had their say cos his showdown was whack
  • 2 replies
    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030

      I wouldn't bet river, because spade draw missed and overall he can't have too many worse hands here he is really willing to call big bets unless he is dumb and going to pull through with random Qx/Jx hands. So overall c/c seems like better idea as you are going to b/c anyway, that lets him bluff his air and missed draws.

      As played that shove sucks. I think he may have K8/Q8/J8/KQ/AT/QQ/JJ or even 9T as I have no idea is he really so crazy to shove missed FD. Against two pair+ range we don't have the needed equity:

      Board: 8c Ks Qs Jc 8d

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 17.391% 13.04% 04.35% 6 2.00 { KhJd }
      Hand 1: 82.609% 78.26% 04.35% 36 2.00 { ATs, KJs+, K8s, QJs, Q8s, J8s, ATo, KJo+, K8o, QJo, Q8o, J8o }

      But if we can discount hands like J8, add some bluffs or spazzes - we can't fold, so we have to call.

      Anywayz, somehow messy post, but hopefully it will be useful in some way.

      Good luck!
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      against 50/30 you likely have to call
      I think he can shove there enough missed draws that would make b/c river profitable
      Also c/c can´t be bad against that maniac :)