[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - 66 - 70bb eff - difficult turn plus River

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($78.70)
      BB ($154)
      Hero ($106)
      UTG+1 ($53.65)
      CO ($35.45)
      BTN ($81.30)

      Dealt to Hero 6:heart: 6:spade:

      Hero raises to $1.50, fold, CO calls $1.50, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($3.75) 5:club: Q:spade: 7:diamond:

      Hero bets $2, CO calls $2

      TURN ($7.75) 5:club: Q:spade: 7:diamond: 4:diamond:

      Hero bets $3.50, CO raises to $9, Hero calls $5.50

      RIVER ($25.75) 5:club: Q:spade: 7:diamond: 4:diamond: 3:club:

      Hero??

      villain unknown; 12/04/2, 17 hands
      villain turn raise looks like either: 1. air; 2. AQ/KQ ( maybe overplaying); 3. Set; 4. 68 that hit a straight (I think it's unlikely given villains tight looking stats and the fact that we have 2 6s already).

      I'm not sure how best to play against the above range. We have about 50% equity against the following range: { AQ, 55,77, KQs, JTo, A5s, Ad9d} which includes some value hands, some draws and some air.

      If villain's range is more polarised (air+AQ/sets), we have about 21 % against the value part of the range. since we only need 21% for breakeven call, calling villains turn raise looks fine.

      River is most difficult. We hit our straight for the nuts ( excepting 68) but I don't know whether we are better off checking to induce from bluffs/AQ or value betting ourselves. If we bet, say, 1/2pot I think we get called by AQ but all the bluffs fold.
      when we check, we miss value only if AQ/KQ checks behind.

      thoughts?

      Thanks
  • 2 replies
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Hi,

      villain is strong here.
      => pot river (villain has 23$ behind). You get called by sets and AQ very likely.

      What did you do and what did villain have, if seen?

      Best regards,
      Anin
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I also think river shove is fine
      He doesn´t really have there too many times AQ and AQ would check back that river close to 100% and he would likely call your river shove with two pair or set that he might also check behind. SO putting money in yourself is fine, only reason to c/rai is if you think villain is bluffing turn and would also fire river