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[NL20-NL50] NL25 FR playing combo draw

    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      PT3 awarded villain with the bomb icon :D , his stats were 21/4/5.6. I put him on a small pair which has flopped the set. Frankly speaking I did not manage to count odds and outs properly, so calculations were something like along the lines "looks like a lot of outs and even if odds are not exactly in my favour they are still not bad", so I just went for it :evil:

      I would really appreciate if someone could write down the exact odds&outs for this one. I kinda calculated them myself, but not so sure about the results...

      please evaluate:

      $0.15/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
      Everest Poker
      9 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($26.42)
      UTG+1 ($25.65)
      MP1 ($50.75)
      Hero ($29.90)
      MP3 ($30.15)
      CO ($39.30)
      BTN ($28.05)
      SB ($14.15)
      BB ($38)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.40, 9 players) Hero is MP2 8:spade: 7:spade:
      3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BTN calls $1, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75

      Flop: 6:heart: 4:spade: 10:spade: ($3.15, 3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.75, BTN raises to $8.40, BB folds, Hero calls $6.65

      Turn: Q:diamond: ($19.95, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN goes all-in $18.65, Hero goes all-in $20.50
  • 5 replies
    • aelfewulf
      aelfewulf
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2009 Posts: 28
      9+3 outs?
      i would shove on the flop. And pray. :D
    • AninIII
      AninIII
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 944
      Hi,

      pre: Fine.
      flop: You hit the nuts: Straight+FD => Shove flop.
      Reason: You have often 9 spade outs + doublebellybuster outs (3x 9 + 3x 5)= 9+6=15 outs.
      Even against a set you have decent equity. (I don't have an equilator, but I guess sth. like 40-42%)
      Against just the nutflush draw you do fine as well.
      Against 1 pair/overpair type of hands you have approx. 15*4=60% equity.
      Even if you have 0 fold equity your play is +ev.

      To call flop and to ch/c turn is horrible, as you decrease your own equity.
      Reason: On turn you have to call 18,65$ to win 38,60$ (=18,65+19,95). You need 18,65/(18,65+38,60))= 32,6% equity.
      On turn you have 15 outs*2 = 30% equity.
      => Fold.

      Best regards,
      Anin
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      It looks like the terrible downswing I was having last few days have affected my decisions not the best way... I am trying to control the pot and not doing it right...
    • aelfewulf
      aelfewulf
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2009 Posts: 28
      Right. I forgot abt the 5 for a straight. So its 9+3+3 outs. Easy shove any day.
      Don't forget bankroll management, if u have something like 30 buyins, u will feel more confident and just shove without breaking a sweat.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by AninIII
      Hi,

      pre: Fine.
      flop: You hit the nuts: Straight+FD => Shove flop.
      Reason: You have often 9 spade outs + doublebellybuster outs (3x 9 + 3x 5)= 9+6=15 outs.
      Even against a set you have decent equity. (I don't have an equilator, but I guess sth. like 40-42%)
      Against just the nutflush draw you do fine as well.
      Against 1 pair/overpair type of hands you have approx. 15*4=60% equity.
      Even if you have 0 fold equity your play is +ev.

      To call flop and to ch/c turn is horrible, as you decrease your own equity.
      Reason: On turn you have to call 18,65$ to win 38,60$ (=18,65+19,95). You need 18,65/(18,65+38,60))= 32,6% equity.
      On turn you have 15 outs*2 = 30% equity.
      => Fold.

      Best regards,
      Anin
      +1
      and since he is also sometimes bluffing, so you take pot down without showdown , so I´d also shove there