[NL2-NL10] NL10 KK overpair

    • Duudalinja
      Duudalinja
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      4 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      CO ($11.12)
      Hero ($10.37)
      SB ($17.25)
      BB ($3.65)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 4 players) Hero is BTN K:diamond: K:heart:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: 9:spade: Q:club: 7:club: ($0.70, 2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB raises to $1, Hero calls $0.50

      Turn: 9:diamond: ($2.70, 2 players)
      SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

      River: 4:diamond: ($4.70, 2 players)
      SB bets $3.55, Hero folds


      Opp: 20/9/0/5.2 [10(48)/3.7(29)/1(17)] over 220 hands
      VPIP/PFR/3bet%pre/AF [flop(hands)/turn(hands)/river(hands)]

      So overall as far as I've seen and stats say this guy is a bit aggro (but not too loose or crazy), but mostly because he cbets a lot (17% c/r flop) and betting when being IP. What should be noticed - he didn't 3bet anything this far.

      Flop: Standard cbet, could be bigger because of draws. Interesting part starts here already - getting c/minraise leaves me with different decisions. As he is not 3betting anything pre I can't discount 99/QQ at this point, so either he has draw, sets or TP. Because of fact he doesn't seem too crazy I didn't 3bet him as I wasn't sure how he handles draws and TP against a 3bet - forcing him fold it would suck. There wasn't too much action pre and cbet wasn't too big, so he MAY raise/broke with worse hands, but calling IP seemed better option.

      Turn: 99 now could be almost crossed out, but when he bets small it again leaves me with mostly two options - either he has FD or hand that already crushes me and he is hoping for raise/let me draw cheaply to dead FD. Again - decided to call hoping he can have JJ/TT/Qx/FD - hands that can't handle a raise.

      River: He is not too aggro on river, so folded. We need at least 30% equity and we have:

      Board: 9s Qc 7c 9d 4d
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 66.667% 66.67% 00.00% 12 0.00 { KdKh }
      Hand 1: 33.333% 33.33% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QQ, 99, AQs, A9s, AQo }

      So it's close and this is assuming he is capable of raising TP on flop.

      Yeah, villain and reads dependent situation and so on, but opinions can never hurt. :)
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      I'd bet bigger on the flop, his stats say "I'm calling with any piece regardless".

      Against a guy who check/raises 17% (assuming he's not like check/minraising once in a while and check/potting it the rest of the time) I'm either 3-betting the flop for value and going broke on any turn or if I fear he could fold worse made hands to a 3-bet I might just call still with the intention of never folding. I'd go more with something like that on the flop to account for random bluffs:

      Board: Qc9s7c
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 60,179 % 59,152 % 2,054 % 38,794 % KhKd
      Player 2: 39,821 % 38,794 % 2,054 % 59,152 % QQ+, 99, AQs, A9s, KQs, T8s, 65s, AQo, A9o, KQo

      So 3-bet would still be my go-to move on such a drawy board.

      And as played even if he continues to bet I'm not convinced it tightens his range on the turn, so I'd raise it up a bit and felt it regardless I don't think he's letting go of a Q.

      River is a bit gross but again who knows what he's doing, maybe he was kinda semi-bluffing on flop/turn and now realizes he has to bluff bigger with air, or he thinks he's slowplaying AQ since the begining and now he's trying to get real value out of it. I'm probably not folding but then again I'd rarely get to the river like that myself.


      Hope it helps.