[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH Rush - AQs tricky spot

    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      SB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q.
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.40, BU folds, Hero calls $0.35, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.9) 8, J, A (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60.

      Turn: ($2.1) T (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $1.60, Hero raises to $4.70, CO calls $3.10.

      River: ($11.5) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $8.57(All-In), CO calls $6.28.

      Final Pot: $26.35.

      Villain relatively unknown - 22/22 over 18 hands ... so if it's possible to deduce anything from this, then it's that since there is no cap between VP & PFR, which both are in normal range, he should be a regular.
  • 2 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Agreed with your assessment of his preflop stats, he played about 4 out of 18 hands and somehow managed to open every single one of them with a raise, so it's no definitive proof but the odds of him being a reg are high.

      For that reason I wouldn't raise the turn, I just don't see what he'd call us with that we beat and it's not like we need to turn our TP2K+GS+NFD into a bluff to take him off exactly AK (he won't fold two pairs). I'd check/call again and pretty confidently fold the river unimproved if he bombs it again. If for some reason I decided to raise, I'd make it smaller, to have him call it more often and then face a ~pot sized bet on the river that he can actually fold to.

      As it is, there is no chance he's going to fold getting like 3:1 unless he happened to have like exactly KhJh or something (he might not even bet that on the turn). So I won't bluff the river and just hope he checks down one of the few hands we still beat.

      Hope it helps.
    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Yeah, I think my mistake there was that the T :heart: opened a whole new world of equity for me and made me forget that I actually have a made hand as well already that I do not need to go crazy with :f_biggrin: