[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - KTo - turn bluff

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,402
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($92.15)
      BB ($50.25)
      UTG ($58.65)
      UTG+1 ($61.25)
      Hero ($71.30)
      BTN ($53.40)

      Dealt to Hero T:heart: K:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, fold, fold

      FLOP ($4.25) 5:club: 4:spade: 4:diamond:

      Hero bets $2, BTN raises to $6.60, Hero calls $4.60

      TURN ($17.45) 5:club: 4:spade: 4:diamond: 4:club:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $10.50, Hero raises to $62.95 (AI), BTN folds

      Hero wins $36.55

      villain 19/14 , AF 28, wts 23, 3b 4%, 248 hands.
      Maybe I gave too much weight to villain's aggression factor in this hand. On the flop I made small cb because I don't really need to protect.

      When villain raises on this board I think he is representing pretty much nothing. I don't think he is likely to raise 4x here and same with 55. So basically I put him on some random over cards, 67s, or some medium pocket pairs which he does not feel comfortable calling down.

      I think turn is a good card for me because it's now even harder for villain to have anything really strong. however, I would expect most aggressive opponents to barrel here and I think we can actually represent a pretty strong hand by shoving.

      Villain actually thought for a very long time before folding. I don't know whether it was because he didn't want to fold his bluff quickly or because he had a decent hand like 88-TT which he did not want to fold.

      if you think our play is really spewy, let me know. Are there any reasons to think that we would be better off calling turn and open shoving any river?
  • 2 replies
    • Zemnieks11
      Zemnieks11
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2009 Posts: 567
      super sketcy board to bluff at, ofc if that was nit then yea he might even fold 66-TT and 5x for sure, but against bit more agro player you will get call from 66+ easy. So if you have some read defo well bluffed nit.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      generally I think it is fine, just really high variance play.
      If you think he is messing around that board then just 3-bet flop 14-15$. Even if he is raising there value pp-s it is really hard him to call you down if you bet 1/2 pot on any turn card. After you get called on the turn I c/f river
      This way youŕe putting in all your stack with K high hoping that villain can b/f turn boats and that he isn't really slowplaying pf QQ+ that he would b/c turn