[NL20-NL50] Rush NL25. Spot where I dont know how to fold TOP 2 (or should I?)

    • expandir
      Joined: 07.08.2008 Posts: 540
      Hi there,

      When I played this hand yesterday night I was a little tired.


      Flop: not standard, but I dont think is a disaster because of its dryness. Told u I was tired ;)
      K or T are the only cards I ahould be a little afraid of. In retrospective, I think I should have bet for value here given his low Fold to Cbet.

      Turn: For Value. I bet in this spot 100% of the time, and this time I have a hand, he could very reasanobly call with worse hands here (any Ax,even AJ, maybe 9Ts). His only likely monster so far is 44 (3) and maybe JJ (3). He should definetely 3bet QQ for value, but anyway there is just (1).

      I bet river for value. Are there enough hands that he C/R for value here or he bluffs to make this call profitable?

      What parts of my analysis are flawed, if any? Did I miss anything?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($25.98)
      BB ($25.88)
      UTG ($10)
      UTG+1 ($34.21)
      UTG+2 ($36.21)
      Hero ($29.23)
      MP2 ($50.75)
      CO ($9.96)
      BTN ($25.35)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: Q:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.90, fold

      FLOP ($2.25) J:heart: 4:diamond: Q:spade:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($2.25) J:heart: 4:diamond: Q:spade: A:club:

      SB checks, Hero bets $1.75, SB calls $1.75

      RIVER ($5.75) J:heart: 4:diamond: Q:spade: A:club: 3:diamond:

      SB checks, Hero bets $4, SB raises to $11.50, Hero calls $7.50

      Hero shows A:spade: Q:diamond:
      (Pre 46%, Flop 3.5%, Turn 9.1%)

      Results follow (highlight to see)

      SB shows 4club: 4spade:
      (Pre 54%, Flop 96.5%, Turn 90.9%)

      SB wins $27.32

  • 1 reply
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      can´t relly see how you can b/f river top two pair even against nit
      his hand range is likely still AJ that he might play sometimes the same way and from time to time some bluffs
      So I think it is played quite standard and I wouldn´t really give him too much credit especially since your hand doesn´t really look the strongest