[NL20-NL50] over pair shove

    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      iPoker - €0.50 NL - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      SB: €50.00
      BB: €50.75 From Blinds: VP:19/PR:9/3B:5%/CBet:70%
      UTG: €104.93
      MP: €87.83
      CO: €50.00
      Hero (BTN): €52.96

      SB posts SB €0.25, BB posts BB €0.50

      Pre Flop: (€0.75) Hero has J:club: J:spade:

      fold, MP calls €0.50, fold, Hero raises to €2.00, fold, BB raises to €6.00, fold, Hero calls €4.00

      Flop: (€12.75, 2 players) 8:diamond: 7:heart: 5:heart:
      BB bets €8.50, Hero raises to €20.00, BB raises to €44.75, Hero calls €24.75

      Turn: (€102.25, 2 players) 3:club:

      River: (€102.25, 2 players) 8:club:

      If I dont push preflop is it silly to push on a low board?
  • 5 replies
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      quite difficult spot, actually.

      Against 5% 3b we don't love to go broke preflop although in a vacuum I would say 6handed in blind battle you don't make a big mistake 4bet/calling JJ preflop.

      On the flop, once you raise I don't think you can fold to the shove. Problem is, only hands we beat are 99/TT/AhKh/AhQh once villain shoves, so I think maybe the value raise is too thin. (I am not 100% sure)

      I think maybe you could consider just calling the flop cb. While it's true that AhKh/AhQh have lots of outs against you, they only account for 2 combinations (AKo/AKs without :heart: are 30 combinations with only 6 outs (12%) against you.

      Then, if turn is blank and villain fires again you can probably just muck your JJ unless villain super aggressive.

      again, in a vacuum, in a 3b pot you are never making an enormous mistake going broke with an over pair, it's just that in this case villain seems pretty tight.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Tim64
      quite difficult spot, actually.

      Against 5% 3b we don't love to go broke preflop although in a vacuum I would say 6handed in blind battle you don't make a big mistake 4bet/calling JJ preflop.

      On the flop, once you raise I don't think you can fold to the shove. Problem is, only hands we beat are 99/TT/AhKh/AhQh once villain shoves, so I think maybe the value raise is too thin. (I am not 100% sure)

      I think maybe you could consider just calling the flop cb. While it's true that AhKh/AhQh have lots of outs against you, they only account for 2 combinations (AKo/AKs without :heart: are 30 combinations with only 6 outs (12%) against you.

      Then, if turn is blank and villain fires again you can probably just muck your JJ unless villain super aggressive.

      again, in a vacuum, in a 3b pot you are never making an enormous mistake going broke with an over pair, it's just that in this case villain seems pretty tight.
      +1
      I also like pf just raise/calling since his 5-bet shove really crushes your JJ
      I think you don´t need to play there for stacks, but if you want then raising flop and calling shove is fine. Just hard him to shove flop too many worse hands than yours JJ, so i think calling flop and folding turn or if you think he barrels too light then shoving turn may be better options
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      i think calling flop and folding turn or if you think he barrels too light then shoving turn may be better options
      Don't I have to protect vs AK,AQ (and especially AhKh,AhQh)?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Dublimax
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      i think calling flop and folding turn or if you think he barrels too light then shoving turn may be better options
      Don't I have to protect vs AK,AQ (and especially AhKh,AhQh)?
      I´m not really sure that AK/AQ would c-bet every single time that spot and against AKhh or AQhh you´re flipping anyway on the flop, better at that case wait for turn card and if it is blank then your equity goes up to 70% instead of 50%

      Just to show you how you´re doing on that flop against top of his range that you want to protect against :)

      board: 8d7h5h
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      jcJs 14.49% 2,573 594
      QQ-AA, AhKh, AhQh 85.51% 16,633 594

      Even if we add there TT his 3-bet and stacking off range
      board: 8d7h5h
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      jcJs 31.25% 7,700 687
      QQ-AA, AhKh, AhQh, TT 68.75% 17,353 687

      Jj isn´t really also doing that great also against that. So by raising very tight player on that flop you´re basically make sure you´re getting all-in very bad most of the times
    • Chenghao
      Chenghao
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.10.2009 Posts: 274
      ch/c FTR , if he 3 barrels with QQ + , you will have to pay him off , otherwise let him hang himself , either way , pot control