[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - ATo- river bluff raise

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($63.70)
      BB ($122)
      UTG ($85.65)
      UTG+1 ($68.75)
      CO ($56.20)
      Hero ($58.45)

      Dealt to Hero T:spade: A:diamond:

      UTG raises to $1.75, fold, fold, Hero raises to $5, fold, fold, UTG calls $3.25

      FLOP ($10.75) 5:diamond: 3:club: 7:spade:

      UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6

      TURN ($22.75) 5:diamond: 3:club: 7:spade: 8:spade:

      UTG checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($22.75) 5:diamond: 3:club: 7:spade: 8:spade: 4:club:

      UTG bets $16, Hero raises to $47.45 (AI), UTG calls $31.45

      villain is a reg 21/17/4, 2.1k, fold vs 3b 69%
      I mainly put him on overpairs here that he was playing carefully for fear I had a set. When he bet the River I saw it as an attempt to extract some thin value and decided to represent 66 or 56s/67s etc that Rivered a straight, thinking that he ought to be able to fold such over pairs on this board. I basically did not think he could ever have 6x here himself.

      was my thinking reasonable? Did I get his range wrong?
  • 5 replies
    • Mstlc
      Mstlc
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 4,676
      You didn't get his range wrong, you got your own range wrong. You're repping jack shit. You're never repping a hand like 76/65 here cause you'd just barrel those on the turn cause you'll make him fold beter there often enough + the equity of 76/65 is strong enough to barrel the turn with a pair + OESD. Also you're kinda not repping a big overpair as those would valuebet the turn and not check behind (well you shouldn't with those hands at least).

      Also how can a 3/4 pot bet be "thin"? This is either a valuebet or a bluff and considering his line it's value 95% of the time, there's no thin involved thus this is a terrible bluff spot. Another reason why this is a terrible bluff is because he has to be good 25% of the time, there's no way you're gonna make him fold a good overpair here regardless of what you're trying to rep.

      Also make your 3bet slightly bigger, you're 120bb deep... and c-bet bigger as well. Do you ever bet just $6 on this board with Aces? Balance your range...
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      I don't play Rush but the 3bet pre has to be pretty terrible, right?

      Anyway, I doubt you're making AK-AJ fold with this cbet (which should be your goal since pairs are never ever folding).

      Evaluating your river play is a bit difficult since you left in results (I'll assume A hi wasn't good), but I hate it regardless. I think you got both his range and your own wrong. He will have quite some overpairs, but he can also have pretty much any set (it's not because he didn't get odds pre that he can't have a set here, trust me... :rolleyes: ), and 66 for the nuts. On the other hand, what are you trying to rep here? If you have a lot of 6x in your range, your probably not very balanced pre (but that's not the worst problem to have), but more importantly, would you ever play AA this way?
    • Mstlc
      Mstlc
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 4,676
      Originally posted by falcone1983
      I don't play Rush but the 3bet pre has to be pretty terrible, right?

      but he can also have pretty much any set (it's not because he didn't get odds pre that he can't have a set here, trust me... :rolleyes: ), and 66 for the nuts.
      3bet could be fine. It's an okish hand but too weak to flat... 3betting against the correct player is ok here. But yeah before looking at his 17% PFR, check his UTG PFR, not point in 3betting if he opens really tight UTG.

      But like I said, if we 3bet here we should make it bigger against a 3.5x open raise. You're now making him call $3.25 to win a potential $58.45. He's getting like 18:1... good enough to call any pocket pair in a 3bet pot, even OOP.
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Oh yeah, didn't pay attention to that. Makes the river bluff even worse then.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you can´t call pf profitable, so if you want to play then 3-bet is fine
      I wouldn´t really shove river, since you´re not repping anything on the river and I think he is going to b/c with sets and overpairs
      If you want to turn your hand into bluff then bet turn and shove river, but since 8s isn´t really the best card to barrel i think giving up is also fine