[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - JKs

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($26.85)
      BB ($50)
      UTG ($339)
      UTG+1 ($69.65)
      CO ($38.65)
      Hero ($91.65)

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: J:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $1.75, fold, Hero calls $1.75, fold, fold

      FLOP ($4.25) 9:heart: 8:heart: 3:diamond:

      UTG+1 bets $4.25, Hero calls $4.25

      TURN ($12.75) 9:heart: 8:heart: 3:diamond: 7:diamond:

      UTG+1 bets $12.75, Hero calls $12.75

      RIVER ($38.25) 9:heart: 8:heart: 3:diamond: 7:diamond: 5:heart:

      UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $27.50, UTG+1 calls $27.50

      not sure about this hand. Villain is 29/14 seven hands - unknown. I think flop is an easy call since when villain bets pot it's often either:
      1. strong hand ( in which case we get good implied odds) or
      2. Rather weak hand in which case J or K may also be good.

      turn is more difficult decision. villain bets pot again but we also pick up gut shot so we have 11-13 outs depending on whether villain has set or over pair.

      Question is whether we will be able to extract enough in case we hit. If I calculated it correctly, we need to extract an additional $20 on the River to make a breakeven call on the turn. Is that reasonable in general? Or do you think if we hit the flush ( rather than the straight) it will be too obvious?

      I think I am less inclined to call this vs a reg since I assume he won't pay me off often enough. Vs unknown it may be okay?

      Thanks
  • 7 replies
    • Mstlc
      Mstlc
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 4,676
      It's closish vs a reg but... you've got position in the hand and 10 clean outs (vs sets) and an additional 1-2 outs vs Aces. If he has queens you also have 3 king outs. A turn call can never be bad. I don't have equilator around but I'm pretty certain you've got close to 30% equity against his range.

      OOP I would never call the turn but IP I think it's fine.
    • falcone1983
      falcone1983
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
      1,716 trials (Exhaustive)
      board: 9:heart: 8:heart: 3:diamond: 7:diamond:
      KhJh 27.07% (460 wins, 9 ties)
      99, 88, 33, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 98s, AhQh, AhTh, 7h6h 72.93% (1,247 wins, 9 ties)

      This should be pretty accurate.

      You only need $10 in implieds (12.75 / 38.25 + 10 = 26.4% equity needed).

      Seems a clear call to me.

      I'd often raise the flop FWIW, but against an unknown it might not be too sensible since you don't know if he tends to cbet such boards as a bluff.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´d also call turn. You have plenty of implied outs and seems like players isn´t going to c/f river if you hit your hand
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      I´d also call turn. You have plenty of implied outs and seems like players isn´t going to c/f river if you hit your hand


      Thanks, Kaitz and others.

      How much should I bet on river?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´d bet around 33-35$, since I think he isn´t really going to c/f there whatever he has once he pot flop and turn
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      since I think he isn´t really going to c/f there whatever he has once he pot flop and turn


      okay, one final question: He had 99 here, for top set. Do you think he actually should fold his set when he checks river and I bet, say $33? (i.e. am I ever bluffing or value betting worse here?)

      And in his shoes would it be better to bet/fold to $23?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Tim64
      since I think he isn´t really going to c/f there whatever he has once he pot flop and turn


      okay, one final question: He had 99 here, for top set. Do you think he actually should fold his set when he checks river and I bet, say $33? (i.e. am I ever bluffing or value betting worse here?)

      And in his shoes would it be better to bet/fold to $23?
      after he pot the flop and turn I think he is never going to fold there top set. I think he shouldn´t fold there, since you may valuebet smt like two pair and he can´t really know that you´re only betting with flushes or never bluff there.
      b/f may be reasonable line there but would you really call him down with one pair hands. So I think I would also check and then decide if i want to call bet or not. Also most of the times you´re betting basically the same amount thinking that I don´t have much and would fold to big bet.