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[NL20-NL50] Rivered top 2 vs pretty nitty reg nl25

    • Southofheaven
      Joined: 03.03.2010 Posts: 301
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($28.07)
      Hero ($71.86)
      UTG ($28.20)
      CO ($27.92)
      BTN ($29.42)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.75, fold, fold, SB calls $0.65, Hero calls $0.50

      FLOP ($2.25) 4:heart: A:heart: T:club:

      SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $2, SB folds, Hero calls $2

      TURN ($6.25) 4:heart: A:heart: T:club: 2:spade:

      Hero checks, UTG checks

      RIVER ($6.25) 4:heart: A:heart: T:club: 2:spade: Q:diamond:

      Hero bets $3.50, UTG raises to $12, Hero folds

      UTG wins $12.61

      Alright so, villain is 34/24/4.8/1.3 VPIP/PFR/3B/Agg factor over 200hands~.
      my thoughts on the hand:
      UTG range is usually fairly strong, event for a 34/24 guy so i can't really squeeze for value so I flat.
      On the turn I would've had to decide whether to c/c or c/f against a 1.3agg guy, but i woulda prolly called again. On the river I bet fairly small (60% or so) to get calls from AK/AJ/AT and some spew queens. When he c/r so big I feel like I'm always beat, either by top set, flopped set of tens or KJ (kj being the most likely one).
      What do you guys think about it?
  • 4 replies
    • falcone1983
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 5,420
      Squeeze preflop against this guy (if you call him "pretty nitty", how do I have to play to be labelled as "fairly LAG-y" by you? O_o ).

      As played flop & turn are ok (turn is never a c/f though, lead is a possibility as well).

      On the river you absolutely have to bet bigger. He never folds any Ace, so get as much value as possible. If he raises it's such a gross spot IMO. It seems such a suicidal bluff, and he probably has the full 16 KJ-combo's in his range (not just suited). On the other hand, he never has a flopped big hand (not betting the turn w/ set or two pair would be beyond afwul), he could have a busted draw, and we have top two :baby: .

      28% equity needed...

      I probably call & cry when he shows me the nuts.
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      I call it off too and hope to see AK or AT enough to make it worthwhile.
      You can easily have a flush draw in this spot which you try to bluff cheaply - I think villain can do this with more Ax hands than you would expect since our hand doesn't look that much like a strong Ace.

      As falcone1983 said, if you bet river bigger it would be easier to fold but as it is I think your hand is sufficiently underrepped that you are forced to call.

      Finally, I dont think flopped sets are that likely - he has to bet the turn with them if he has any kind of brain.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would personally not b/f river against him although a lot of times you see there QQ or KJ. I think he can sometimes raise there with bluffs and top two seems too strong to b/f there
    • Southofheaven
      Joined: 03.03.2010 Posts: 301
      I meant nitty post-flop, having a 1.3 agg factor. thanks for the answers guys