{"id":21667,"date":"2012-04-24T09:11:00","date_gmt":"2012-04-24T09:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/fr\/la-rubrique-de-melouche-paye-paye-paye\/"},"modified":"2026-03-02T15:55:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T15:55:18","slug":"la-rubrique-de-melouche-paye-paye-paye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/fr\/news\/content\/La-rubrique-de-Melouche--paye-paye-paye_58939\/","title":{"rendered":"La rubrique de Melouche : paye, paye, paye"},"content":{"rendered":"<?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><h2 class=\"Standard\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">Paye, paye, paye.<\/span><\/b><\/h2><p class=\"Standard\"><span lang=\"EN-US\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float: right;\" src=\"https:\/\/img194.imageshack.us\/img194\/492\/article2c.jpg\" alt=\"STOP DONKEY\" width=\"220\" height=\"291\"><\/span><i><span lang=\"EN-US\">And the river is... <\/span>Une dame ! Villain check. J'ai toujours top paire top kicker avec mon AK, et la range de Villain &eacute;tant AQ-A2, je le bat 2 fois sur 3 au kicker et je suis battu 1 fois sur 3 par une double paire. Je fais donc un value bet &agrave; la moiti&eacute; du pot, soit 50&euro; dans un pot de 100&euro;. Paye, paye, paye...<br>&nbsp;<\/i><\/p><p class=\"Standard\"><b>STOP ! <\/b>Hero a fait une erreur, mais &agrave; quel moment ? Non : ceux qui ont lu des spoilers, ne soufflez pas. Vous ne trouvez pas ? Un indice, ce n'est ni dans la range de Villain, ni dans son equity, ni dans le sizing de son value bet. Toujours pas ? Bon, soit, on reprend depuis le d&eacute;but.<\/p><p class=\"Standard\">&nbsp;<\/p><h2 class=\"Standard\"><b>Situation<\/b><\/h2><p class=\"Standard\">Hero a en main AK. Il a donc top paire et top kicker sur un flop A high sans couleur ni quinte, pour l'exemple on prendra : A926Q. L'action et ses reads sur Villain lui permettent d'estimer assez pr&eacute;cis&eacute;ment la range de Villain &agrave; AQ-A2. Villain a donc au moins top paire, au mieux double paire, et il n'y a jamais partage. Dans 67% des cas Hero gagne ; dans 33% des cas Hero perd.<\/p><h3 class=\"Standard\"><b>Que se passe-t-il si Hero bet ?<\/b><\/h3><ul>\n<li><u>Premier cas : Villain se couche<\/u><\/li>\n<\/ul><p class=\"Standard\">Si Villain couche sa main, alors dans 100% des cas on est en situation de <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=sJpNgovh-RQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i>&laquo;&nbsp;Tout pour papa !&nbsp;&raquo;<\/i><\/a>, c'est &agrave; dire que l'expected value du fold de Villain face au value bet de Hero est de 100&euro; :<\/p><p class=\"Standard\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">EV = 1*100 = 100&euro;<\/span>.<\/p><ul>\n<li><u>Second cas : Villain paye<\/u><\/li>\n<\/ul><p class=\"Standard\">Pour calculer l'expected value, qui est le gain moyen de Hero sur ce type de coup, on d&eacute;duit sa mise de 50&euro; &agrave; ses gains river (67% du temps il gagne un pot de 200&euro; et 33% du temps il perd sa mise de 50&euro;) :<\/p><p class=\"Standard\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">EV = (0,67*200 &ndash; 0,33*50) &ndash; 50 = 67,5&euro;<\/span>.<\/p><p class=\"Standard\">Oh ? C'est tout ? On refait les calculs... Et non c'est correct : c'est tout. C'est bien un value bet puisque Hero est gagnant quand il se fait payer. Mais il y gagne plus &agrave; ce que Villain se couche et... Ah j'en entends au fond de la classe qui pensent que dans ce cas Hero ferait peut-&ecirc;tre mieux de checker...<\/p><p class=\"Standard\">&nbsp;<\/p><h3 class=\"Standard\"><b>Que se passe-t-il si Hero check behind ?<\/b><\/h3><p class=\"Standard\">Dans 67% des cas, Hero remporte les 100&euro; du pot ; dans 33% des cas, Hero perd le coup. Calculons donc l'expected value d'un check :<\/p><p class=\"Standard\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">EV = 0,67*100 &ndash; 0,33*0 = 67&euro;<\/span>.<\/p><p class=\"Standard\">Checker dans ce genre de situation fera gagner en moyenne 67&euro; &agrave; Hero. De plus, c'est <span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><i>&laquo;&nbsp;weak&nbsp;&raquo;<\/i><\/span> (en anglais &ccedil;a veut dire que t'es une lavette si tu check).<\/p><p class=\"Standard\">&nbsp;<\/p><h2 class=\"Standard\"><b>Conclusion<\/b><\/h2><div><i><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float: right;\" src=\"https:\/\/img3.imageshack.us\/img3\/5247\/article22.jpg\" alt=\"STOP DONKEY\" width=\"220\" height=\"291\"><\/i>Si on reprend la situation de Hero avec son AK, sauriez-vous me dire quelle a &eacute;t&eacute; l'erreur de Hero maintenant ? Hero est devant, il fait un value bet &agrave; hauteur de la moiti&eacute; du pot, il esp&egrave;re donc &ecirc;tre pay&eacute;... Oui c'est l&agrave; ! Souvenez-vous, Hero pense <i>&laquo;&nbsp;Paye, paye, paye...&nbsp;&raquo;<\/i>, alors que l'action correcte serait de penser <i>&laquo;&nbsp;Fold, fold, fold...&nbsp;&raquo; <\/i>qui a une&nbsp;bien meilleure expected value dans cette situation. Il ne nous reste plus qu'&agrave; le lui expliquer.<\/div><p class=\"Standard\"><i><br>And the river is... Une dame de pique ! <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=V7nBLZ1G1z0&amp;t=9m43s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Yes<\/a> ! Villain check. J'ai une quinte flush royale, c'est la premi&egrave;re fois de ma vie, c'est incroyable, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=0hoiUamPsJU#t=27m02s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IN-CRO-YA-BLE<\/a> ! C'est... Incroyable. La range de Villain &eacute;tant brelan, suite ou couleur, et bah... Qu'est-ce que je me fiche de sa range ? Il est battu dans tous les cas. Je fais donc un value bet &agrave; la moiti&eacute; du pot, soit 50&euro; dans un pot de 100&euro;. <b>Fold, fold, fold...<\/b><\/i><\/p><p class=\"Standard\">&nbsp;<\/p><p class=\"Standard\"><b>STOP !<\/b> Non mais <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=V7nBLZ1G1z0&amp;t=2m48s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">c'est la cerise sur le bateau<\/a>... T'as rien compris toi, je change de Hero pour le prochain article puisque c'est comme &ccedil;a ! Incroyable...<\/p><p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/cdn-origin\/Editorial\/elements\/ps_image_arrow_link.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"16\" height=\"12\">&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/fr\/forum\/thread.php?threadid=114947\"><b>Discutez sur le blog de Melouche<\/b><\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bienvenue dans la rubrique de Melouche. Avertissement : ne vous laissez pas avoir par cette analyse du value bet river, il n'y a rien d'utile pour votre strat\u00e9gie dans cette article !<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21668,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-content"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La rubrique de Melouche : paye, paye, paye - PokerStrategy FR<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/fr\/news\/content\/La-rubrique-de-Melouche--paye-paye-paye_58939\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La rubrique de Melouche : paye, paye, paye - PokerStrategy FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bienvenue dans la rubrique de Melouche. 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