Can you deal with an equity shift at NL5k?

We're back with another high stakes analysis. This time LLinusLLove and OtB_RedBaron face their loose-aggressive opponent OhHeyCindy.

Chaneira, apparently LLinusLLoves' personal mascot

No worries, fans of our neat and tidy high stakes hand reviews! This time OtB_RedBaron won't be taking the role of Hero again, still he's going to be involved in the next hand we're going to analyse.

As well as our usual suspect, LLinusLLove is also sitting at today's table. The 22-year-old player from Switzerland is not an unknown at the highest stakes and regularly dives into the action at NL5k and beyond. Last year he also finished 5th in the WCOOP $10,300 8-Max High Roller and won $194,561.

Lately, he's probably most known for his epic duel against GASTRADER. As we all know from the first hand of our relaunched high stakes reviews, hiding behind that screen name is famous hedge fund manager and prop bet enthusiast Bill Perkins. When they met each other on NL40,000, LLinusLLove, who's also sporadically active on Twitter, was able to snatch roughly $250,000 off of Perkins.

The third player at the table and today's Hero is OhHeyCindy. The special thing about him is that he's not just another regular but a very loose and highly creative one. Through his unconventional loose-aggressive approach, OhHeyCindy regularly confronts other regs at the highest limits putting them in very difficult spots. However, due to the nature of his playing style, he's usually also prone to shoot a bit over the top.

Diving into the action

This time, we won't focus a lot of attention on the preflop action. When people play three-handed at these limits against these opponents, is certainly always part of the Big Blind's 3-bet range.

high stakes review llinusllove
This week's action with OhHeyCindy and OtB_RedBaron

Things get more interesting on the flop, though, since we're confronted with a monochrome board while the preflop aggressor has to play out of position. These circumstances provide an advantage for the player in position, in this case OtB.

The reason is that a so-called "equity shift" could happen. If a fourth diamond hits on the turn, a presumably strong hand on the flop could suddenly be worth nothing. The equity jumps to 0 with a single card, or at least strongly moves towards that point.

A rather unusual flop

check picture

Due to the special characteristics of this flop, the preflop aggressor now has to check a lot of hands. Pokersolver, a software for game theory optimal play, suggests a checking range of up to 95%. This leads to the high stakes regs usually not having any betting range at all here and checking any hand. Therefore, OtB in position can and is actually forced to bet with a high frequency and he deemed roughly 1/4th of the pot to be an appropriate size.

With our Hero now still has to call against the wide range OtB is betting, especially when he is getting such good odds. Still, this hand should certainly be the lower part of your check/calling range when out of position in such a spot.

The decision after the equity shift

NL5k High Stakes Analyse

To keep things exciting, the poker gods in fact decide to drop the anticipated fourth diamond with the . The spot has now turned into a much more comfortable situation for OhHeyCindy since any nut flush and second and third nut flush combos could be a part of his range after not betting the flop.

Therefore, he now leads himself with a bet of 1/4th of the pot. You can safely assume that he does that with roughly 30% of his range here, of course always in a balanced manner with monsters as well as bluffs. However, since he's only doing it in 30% of the cases, it becomes very hard for his opponent to see through his donking and checking range.

Sets will also partially be within OhHeyCindy's donking range since they offer redraw potential to the river with quads and a full house if OtB decides to continue. And that's exactly what he wants to do here. However, he doesn't just call but confronts us with quite a tough spot by 3-betting instead. And now it's your turn again!

Last week's result

Last week we offered you a piece of high-variance action on the highest Spin&Go level. Contrary to what SpinLegends experts suggested, most of 596 voters decided to fold. But most of flush draws and gutshots missed that River except those with Jx, so there's a huge amount of hands to bluff catch against.

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Comments (1)

  • jmackenzie


    wheres the flat call and lead river option