Can you profit from Bill Perkins at NL5K?

This week’s hand review confronts you with Bill Perkins and a high stakes regular in a three-way pot. Will you come out on top?

Bill Perkins & Dan Bilzerian
Bill Perkins & Dan Bilzerian

Since our high stakes hand reviews have been very well received, we're continuing the series with another four hands played at the highest stakes online. As before, our German coach and high stakes analyst IronPumper will help out reviewing the hands in question.

In today's hand the spot of Hero is taken by a familiar face. OtB_RedBaron is still one of the most consistent regs at high stakes and is now being featured for the third time in our reviews. MMAsherdog is also a solid regular who is keeping up a very active and interesting blog on his online endeavors. Way less information is out there on Stambolov and DRluck3, however both players can also safely be ranked amongst the better ones for their limits.

A well-known "recreational"

Samuel L. Jackson
Samuel L. Jackson in Unthinkable

The most interesting character at the table, and one who will play an important role in today's hand, is GASTRADER, otherwise known as hedge fund manager, film producer and poker fan Bill Perkins.

His most famous work is the movie "Unthinkable" with Samuel L. Jackson. And, we all know, one of his best buddies, especially when it comes to poker, is Dan Bilzerian.

Diving into the action

High Roller Analysis OtB_RedBaron
Stambolov, OtB_RedBaron and GASTRADER going at it

Today's hand looks pretty standard in terms of preflop action. However, usually OtB_RedBaron would 3-bet and not just call in such a spot. The important difference here is that GASTRADER is sitting with the blinds behind him and he wants to see him involved in the hand. Hence our Hero's calling range gets wider than usual and is now a part of it. As expected, Bill Perkins takes the bait and joins the fun.

Taking the role of preflop aggressor, the cut-off chooses a very small conti-bet of roughly 1/3 the pot. That's mostly because he hopes to bet a lot of hands in this spot since the Button will only have a very narrow raising range and the Big Blind already checked.

Kings on the board

Kings

Luckily for the cut-off, this particular paired board is one of the few that's actually an excellent hit for his stealing range. In contrast, his opponents will have rarely hit something since many strong king-high hands would have 3-bet preflop.

The reason why the cut-off can assume that Hero will rarely raise the flop can again be attributed to the involvement of the Big Blind. OtB_RedBaron wants to keep Perkins in the hand and will call with almost all of his strong hands. Since Hero knows that the preflop aggressor is on a wide betting range, he has to call with considering he hit bottom pair and is getting favourable odds.

Battle of the regs on the turn

Eminem
Only the regs remain

The attempt to keep Bill Perkins involved doesn't bear any fruit, however, so we're looking at a tense reg battle on the turn. Stambolov decides to keep up the aggression and fire another bet, this time for half the pot. Since he's betting a balanced range in this spot, strong hands like trips should be a part of it, but also bluffs and semi-bluffs with a flush draw are definitely a possibility.

Hero's response to the second barrel is a bluff with bottom pair to get his opponent to fold a possible middle pair. It's important to note that Hero's also trying to balance his value raises with this move. That's a key aspect in this spot when assuming that Hero could also be on a so-called "fast play" here, meaning he wouldn't just check the turn with trips, a full house as well as pocket threes or deuces. The way the hand was played up to this point, all these hands are still a possibility in Hero's range.

A tough decision on the river

After the bluff on the turn didn't work, Hero is facing a difficult decision on the river. The cut-off checked to him and he has to assume that he's going to be behind when checking as well.

So the question now is: Should he still give up the hand and check to the showdown? That should obviously be the choice when you put the cut-off on a value range that wouldn't fold against another bet on this river.

Another option is to bluff. There is $2,956.54 in the pot and Hero has $3,867.86 left. He could bet half the pot and still fold against a check-raise/all-in in case that's what the cut-off was planning here. Hero would be able to save more than $2,000 if this second bluff doesn't work out.

The third option is an all-in push. Such a play would certainly balance Hero's value range much better since he also would want to put his whole stack in the middle with a monster instead of just betting half the pot. However, if his opponent doesn't have a folding range anymore, this play would end up being quite an expensive choice.

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Comments (8)

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  • Varune

    #1

    Easy xback, we don't have many Kx in our range as stated in the article as we would probably 3bet alot of the stronger Kx for value and perhaps weaker onces for bluffs. So Stambolov should have an easy x/c with the draws missing and our valuerange being super narrow.
    This makes shoving bad aswell because we are ahead of the possible draws villain could have and we're going to be valuetowning ourselves vs Kx or even PP's that decide to herocall.
  • SeagalSteven

    #2

    Nobrainer shove, no other options. You're not bluffing turn to give up here. Bit too optimistic bluff though IMO
  • JohnDoe1313

    #3

    I wouldn't have turn raising range here and if I did, I'd like to block K3s (CO might open that, might not), so folding the turn with this combo is my preferred move. Playing all A3s combos this way seems like overbluffing. But no clue what's going on these limits.
  • OnkelHotte

    #4

    I would check back and surrender.
  • Shevtshenko

    #5

    If you don't shove, what's your bluffing range?
  • LacsapR

    #6

    tough decision though
  • slingkuss

    #7

    Seems like a merged raise to me on the turn, if OTB can fold out 2 overcards to the pair it is a decent outcome and A3 is in good shape against hands like ATss and river decicion probaly becomes easier more often with a turn raise. On the river CO can easily have missed spade-spade combos which OTB beats, hands like AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A7, A5, A4, A2, QJ, QT, Q9, JT, J9, T9, 76, 65 and potentially 54, Q8, J8 of spades and so check becomes very high in EV since it has so much showdown value. Bet half pot is suicide since CO will probably fold the missed draws or bluff-raise and he probably calls most of his middle PP+. Shoving with some frequncy could be an option to rep 33 with the 3 blocker and get some PP to fold but I doubt it is higher in EV than a check back and take the showdown value.
  • slingkuss

    #8

    sorry Q8ss and J8ss got there on the river vs A3 but still a lot of showdown value.