Should you fold the hand you've been waiting for?

We've got the desired card to improve our hand, but do we really know what to do with it now that our dream came true?

We're back to grinding NL50 and we get a pair of fish hooks in the Cut-Off. Let's see if we can catch something big...

poker hand

There's not much to discuss preflop. We raise first-in and the Big Blind calls. The flop is much more interesting. Is it good enough for a continuation bet? Our Hero reasonably decided to stall his aggression; better hands won't fold anyway and majority of worse hands won't pay us. Besides, we block some gutshots with our Jack. So the plan is to check behind, call the turn bet and re-evaluate our situation on the river depending on whether our opponent dares to fire another blank round at us. But something is about to change...

change

The turn brings us one of the best cards we could hope for and there's no way we can simply call the Villain's bet with our full house – our hand is just to good to play it passively. Ideally, we need to move all-in on the turn before another common pair kills the action. We also want to get a call from some draws or worse hands with showdown value because our line may be also considered a bluff. So far, the hand looks pretty good for us, except that we could raise a bit bigger. It probably won't make a difference for the Villain, but for us it means big bucks in the long run.

Now, the river is very interesting. Some straights and flushes are possible here and we need to decide if we want to value bet. We don't have enough hands played with our opponent to evaluate his stats but, from what we know, he looks like a solid player who won't pay us with just any hand. Our Hero decided to value bet. He's obviously ahead of the range our opponent could call with, but what about the all-in that follows?

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As always, it's time for you to determine the correct course of action. Let's say you agree with our Hero's bet. Then what's better – call or fold? If you like alternative history, let's reconsider the initial turn action. Should we think of it as a "way ahead / way behind" kind of deal and simply call in position to induce bluff on the river? Anyway, time for you to decide!

Previous poll's results

Hand of the Week

Last time we were trying to punish a limper with our marginal hand. In the end, it turned out to be a great value spot.

As it was played, we have to shove. This option won in all communities but didn't get more than 64% of votes. Meanwhile, it's an important lesson to learn: don't be afraid to extract value from weaker players. Yes, sometimes we'll see an A-high flush, but that's alright. There's a much bigger number of worse hands that won't be able to fold in this situation.

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Comments (3)

newest first
  • Varune

    #1

    Easy bet/fold, he has to turn alot Qx into a bluff OTR to make this call viable(if he even has those alot). Straights/flushes will take showdown. And our range is uncapped and fairly nutted after the play prior to his shove. So once he does attack this range he has to be nutted himself too.

    If he shows anything less than QJ, it's pure spew.
  • semiramiRNMD

    #2

    He either has a full house(or KT of diamonds), or nothing. OTR we are bluff catching, because we have the worst full house. So the question is does he have enough bluffs? I don't think so, so we fold.
  • tonypmm

    #3

    There are so many possible full houses beating Hero's one on this board that the underfull is at the bottom of his valuebetting range, and thus a bet/fold.

    Also, because it's a low-stake table, I suspect that Villain's river raising range may be more value-heavy than GTO due to Zeebo's theorem (he expects Hero to never fold a full house).