Billions traded already on World Cup prediction markets

Ahead of Mexico vs South Africa this evening, there has already been record trading volume on the World Cup at Kalshi and Polymarket.

The World Cup starts today, and all the signs are pointing to it being the biggest betting event of all time. 

This was already a prediction from Flutter yesterday when we reported that there was $60 billion wagered via regulated sports books, but it also looks like it's going to do Gangbusters on the prediction markets. 

At the time of writing, there has already been $2 billion traded on the outright World Cup winner market on Polymarket. On that market, Spain is the current favourite to take the trophy at odds of 17%, however, the most volume has been traded on the United States, with almost $57 million traded. 

On Kalshi, almost $150 million has been wagered on the same market, with Spain once again the outright favourites. 

Billions more to be traded

The first game in the 2026 World Cup is Mexico against South Africa this evening. There has already been $3.7 million traded on this market on Kalshi, and a near identical amount on Polymarket. 

In both instances, the markets have Host Nation Mexico as the big favourite at 70%.

These are already huge trading figures and will only increase as the tournament progresses, especially this year, as the World Cup is much longer than in previous tournaments. 

In the United States, at least, the rise of prediction markets continues unabated. However, globally this trend will not be mirrored, as many of the countries at the World Cup have banned prediction markets or at least regulate them in the same way they would a gambling operator rather than a financial market.