	{"id":40134,"date":"2024-03-01T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-03-01T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/pl\/krotkoterminowa-wariancja-w-prop-betach\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T18:30:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T18:30:25","slug":"krotkoterminowa-wariancja-w-prop-betach","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/pl\/news\/world-of-poker\/Kr%C3%B3tkoterminowa-wariancja-w-prop-betach_130375\/","title":{"rendered":"Kr\u00f3tkoterminowa wariancja w prop betach"},"content":{"rendered":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<?xml encoding=\"utf-8\" ?><p><br>\n<br>\n<\/p><br><br><body>\n<p>Ka&#380;dy ma swoj&#261; opini&#281; na temat korespondencyjnego pojedynku&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/pl\/news\/world-of-poker\/130275\/\">Tice vs Becker<\/a> podczas tegorocznego World Series of Poker. Wszyscy rozmawiaj&#261; o crossbooku pomi&#281;dzy \"dzieckiem GTO\" i \"cz&#322;owiekiem czutk&#261;\".&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Przy tej okazji wpad&#322; mi do g&#322;owy taki &#380;art:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">It would be awesome if Tice vs Becker ended with three mincashes between them<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Barry Carter (@Barry_Carter) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Barry_Carter\/status\/1761423926792478882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 24, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Potem zacz&#261;&#322;em si&#281; zastanawia&#263;, jak prawdopodobny jest taki scenariusz. Obaj zgodzili si&#281; crossbokowa&#263; tego lata co najmniej 25 turniej&oacute;w w ramach serii i chocia&#380; obaj s&#261; zdecydowanie EV+ przeciwko ca&#322;emu fieldowi, 25 event&oacute;w to tak naprawd&#281; pr&oacute;bka, kt&oacute;ra nie jest wyznacznikiem niczego.<\/p>\n<p>Zdecydowa&#322;em si&#281; wi&#281;c skorzysta&#263; z mojej ulubionej zabawki online, czyli&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.primedope.com\/tournament-variance-calculator\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PrimeDope<\/a>, aby zobaczy&#263;, jakie s&#261; szanse, &#380;e &#380;aden z nich nie zaliczy ani jednego du&#380;ego casha. Poda&#322;em &#347;rednie wpisowe 3000 $ w turniejach na 1000 uczestnik&oacute;w, daj&#261;c obu ROI w wysoko&#347;ci 50%. Ta stopa zwrotu jest oczywi&#347;cie dyskusyjna, ale chcia&#322;em by&#263; tutaj szczodry, aby uwydatni&#263; swoj&#261; racj&#281;.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Oto 20 przypadkowych wynik&oacute;w z 1000 symulacji:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"modulFull\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2024\/02\/26\/Primedope_Tournament_Variance_Samples_mtt25xUSD3000(150-1000)(r7R50).png\" alt=\"Poker\" caption=\"false\" width=\"772\" height=\"602\"><\/figure>\n<p>A to jest rozk&#322;ad dla wszystkich turniej&oacute;w, na 1000 pr&oacute;bek:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"modulFull\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2024\/02\/26\/Primedope_Tournament_Variance_Histogram_mtt25xUSD3000(150-1000)(r7R50).png\" alt=\"Poker\" caption=\"false\" width=\"772\" height=\"602\"><\/figure>\n<h2>Wi&#281;kszo&#347;&#263; czasu wyzwanie ko&#324;czy si&#281; strat&#261;<\/h2>\n<figure class=\"modulRight\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn-origin.pokerstrategy.com\/2024\/02\/19\/Screenshot_2024-02-19_084522.png\" alt=\"Poker\" caption=\"false\" width=\"772\" height=\"602\"><figcaption>Jeremy Becker i Landon Tice<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Prawdopodobie&#324;stwo przegrywania pieni&#281;dzy po 25 turniejach wynosi 69,4%.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jak wida&#263; z przyk&#322;adowych symulacji i rozk&#322;adu, najcz&#281;stszym wynikiem jest bycie na minusie, a nierzadko zdarza si&#281;, &#380;e nie uda si&#281; scashowa&#263; &#380;adnego eventu.<\/p>\n<p>Pod &#380;adnym wzgl&#281;dem nie jest to idealna symulacja. Bez w&#261;tpienia ROI b&#281;dzie znacznie ni&#380;sze. Rozmiary field&oacute;w b&#281;d&#261; si&#281; r&oacute;&#380;ni&#263; w zale&#380;no&#347;ci od wpisowego, podobnie jak ROI. Obaj panowie prawdopodobnie rozegraj&#261; wi&#281;cej ni&#380; 25 wydarze&#324;.<\/p>\n<p>Pokazuje to jednak, jak daremne jest ocenianie kogokolwiek na podstawie jednej serii turniejowej. W przypadku ma&#322;ej pr&oacute;bki, najbardziej prawdopodobny wynik, niezale&#380;nie od umiej&#281;tno&#347;ci, jest taki, &#380;e obaj gracze strac&#261; pieni&#261;dze w rozegranych przez siebie eventach.<\/p>\n<p>Maj&#261;c to wszystko na uwadze, &#380;ycz&#281; powodzenia Jeremy&rsquo;emu Beckerowi, poniewa&#380; na niego postawi&#322;em.<\/p>\n<p><i>Macie swojego faworyta w tym challenge'u?<\/i><\/p>\n\n<p><br>\n<\/p>\n<\/body>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ca\u0142y hazardowy \u015bwiat postawi\u0142 pieni\u0105dze na starcie Tice vs Becker, ale czy ten zak\u0142ad cokolwiek udowodni, je\u015bli event\u00f3w jest tylko 25?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":40135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-world-of-poker"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - 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