{"id":45486,"date":"2009-11-09T19:12:00","date_gmt":"2009-11-09T19:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/pl\/strategy\/1007\/"},"modified":"2026-07-06T06:27:45","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T06:27:45","slug":"1007","status":"publish","type":"strategy","link":"https:\/\/www.pokerstrategy.com\/pl\/strategy\/weekly-fixed-limit\/1007\/","title":{"rendered":"Decisions Based on Attempts to steal"},"content":{"rendered":"

Decisions Based on Attempts to steal <\/h1>\n\t\n\n\n\n\n
 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\n\n\n\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t» Article\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\n\t\t\t \n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

Decisions Based on Attempts to steal<\/h1>\n

\n\t\t\tby Bobbs<\/i>\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\tWe sit in the blinds and a regular, with a well-known ATS value makes a
\n\t\t\traise from the cutoff or the button. Both players have a stack of
\n\t\t\troughly 11-18 BB.\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\tBecause the ATS value is well
\n\t\t\tknown, we should use this information to find the move with the largest
\n\t\t\texpected value against the stealraiser. Many players here will choose
\n\t\t\tbetween either a 11-16 BB Push or a Fold.\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\tThis will not be optimal in certain
\n\t\t\tsituations, since we have the stop-and-go move at our disposal. This is
\n\t\t\twhere we call the raise and then push given an appropriate flop, with
\n\t\t\tthe aim that this will creat more fold equity than a preflop shove.\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\tExample: The BU-Raiser has 55 and
\n\t\t\tthe flop is AJT. If we go all in now, we almost certainly force him to
\n\t\t\tfold. By using a stop-and-go, we can sometimes get better hands than
\n\t\t\tours to fold the flop, but would have called a pre-flop shove.\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\tA stop-and-go is not always the
\n\t\t\tbest choice against certain stealranges. In order to determine when the
\n\t\t\tmove is applicable, we must analyse the opponents ATS value.\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\tI indicate the probability, for
\n\t\t\teach ATS value, that the opponent holds an ace, king or a queen.
\n\t\t\tBecause most ATS values are in the range 20% - 45%, we shall look at
\n\t\t\tthe cases for ATS of 20, 25, 30 , 40 and 45. (These values come from
\n\t\t\tthe Sklansky-Chubukov-Rankings)\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t \n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ATS = 20<\/b>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\n\t\t\t33+, A4o+, A2s+, KQo, KTs+<\/p>\n

\t\t\t33-AA = 12*6 Combinations
\n\t\t\tA4o+ = 10*12 Combinations
\n\t\t\tA2s+ = 12*4 Combinations
\n\t\t\tKQo = 12 Combinations
\n\t\t\tKTs+ = 3*4 Combinations<\/p>\n

\t\t\tTOTAL (Range) = 252<\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(A4o+) + P(A2s+)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = [6 + 120 + 48]\/252
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace<\/b>) = 0.69 = 69%<\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(KQo) + P(KTs+)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 12 + 12]\/252
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King<\/b>) = 0.182 = 18.2% <\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) ]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16]\/252
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = 0.15 = 15%<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t \n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ATS = 25<\/b>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\n\t\t\t22+, Ax, KTo+, K9s+,QTs+<\/p>\n

\t\t\t22-AA = 13*6 Combinations
\n\t\t\tAx = 12*16 Combinations
\n\t\t\tKTo+ = 3*12 Combinations
\n\t\t\tK9s+ = 4*4 Combinations
\n\t\t\tQTs = 2*4 Combinations<\/p>\n

\t\t\tTOTAL (Range) = 330<\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = [6 + 192]\/330
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = 198\/330
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace<\/b>) = 0.6 = 60%<\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(KTo+) + P(K9s+)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 36 + 16]\/330
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King<\/b>) = 0.224 = 22.4% <\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(QTs+)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 8]\/330
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = 0.14 = 14%<\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tWe note that villain holds an ace in most cases. Against an all-in
\n\t\t\treraise, there is almost no hand he can fold given the odds. But
\n\t\t\tbecause we know his likely hand range, we can use this knowledge
\n\t\t\tagainst him on the flop.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tExample:<\/b>
\n\t\t\tBU raises 3BB (12 BB)
\n\t\t\tSB folds
\n\t\t\tHero in BB with A9o(11 BB)<\/p>\n

\t\t\tWith A9+ Hero should just call. On the flop we then play as follows:<\/p>\n

\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tFlop A: <\/b>A T 5<\/p>\n

\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tFlop B: <\/b>Q 9 4<\/p>\n

\t\t\tA) Hero checks, Bu bets, Hero raises All-In
\n\t\t\tHere we play check\/raise All-In. Villain holds an ace with a worse kicker in most cases and we cannot fold.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tB) Hero pushes All-In
\n\t\t\tIt is rare that either of us hit this hit this type of flop, but many
\n\t\t\thands to which we are behind, for instance, 22 or 55, will likely fold
\n\t\t\tto a push.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tUsing this variation of stop-and-go, we get the maximal value from our
\n\t\t\tinformation abouts the opponents holdings. If an ace comes on the flop,
\n\t\t\twe often have the best kicker. If no ace comes, the opponent will fold
\n\t\t\ta lot of better hands.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tSince we play like this against a tight stealing range, this move is clearly superior to a push.<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t \n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ATS = 30<\/b>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\n\t\t\t22+, Ax, K8o+, K4s+,QJ, Q9s+, JTs<\/p>\n

\t\t\t22-AA = 13*6 Combinations
\n\t\t\tAx = 12*16 Combinations
\n\t\t\tK8o+ = 5*12 Combinations
\n\t\t\tK4s+ = 9*4 Combinations
\n\t\t\tQJo = 12 Combinations
\n\t\t\tQ9s+ = 3*4 Combinations
\n\t\t\tJTs = 4 Combinations<\/p>\n

\t\t\tTOTAL (Range) = 394<\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = [6 + 192]\/394
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = 198\/394
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace<\/b>) = 0.503 = 50,03%<\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(K8o+) + P(K4s+)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 60 + 36]\/394
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King<\/b>) = 0.299 = 29.94% <\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(QJo) + P(Q9s+))]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 12 + 12]\/394
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = 0.157 = 15.7%<\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\t<\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t \n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ATS = 40<\/b>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\n\t\t\t22+, Ax, K3o+, K2s+,Q9o+, Q5s+, JTs<\/p>\n

\t\t\t22-AA = 13*6 Combinations
\n\t\t\tAx, 12*16 Combinations
\n\t\t\tK3o+, 10*12 Combinations
\n\t\t\tK2s+, 11*4 Combinations
\n\t\t\tQ9o+, 3*12 Combinations
\n\t\t\tQ5s+, 7*4 Combinations
\n\t\t\tJTs = 4 Combinations<\/p>\n

\t\t\tTOTAL (Range) = 502<\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = 198\/502
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace<\/b>) = 0.394 = 39.4%<\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(K3o+) + P(K2s+)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 120 + 44]\/502
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King<\/b>) = 0.371 = 37.1% <\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(Q9o+) + P(Q5s+))]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 32 + 28]\/502
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = 0.195 = 19.5%<\/b><\/p>\n

\n\t\t\t \n\t\t\t<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ATS = 45<\/b>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\n\t\t\t22+, Ax, Kx+,Q7o, Q2s+, J9o+, J7s+, T8s+<\/p>\n

\t\t\t22-AA = 13*6 Combinations
\n\t\t\tAx, 12*16 Combinations
\n\t\t\tKx, 11*16 Combinations
\n\t\t\tQ7o+, 5*12 Combinations
\n\t\t\tQ2s+, 10*4 Combinations
\n\t\t\tJ9o+, 12*2 Combinations
\n\t\t\tJ7s+, 4*4 Combinations
\n\t\t\tT8s+, 2*4 Combinations<\/p>\n

\t\t\tTOTAL (Range) = 594<\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = [P(AA) + P(Ax)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = [6 + 192]\/498
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace) = 198\/594
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Ace<\/b>) = 0.33 = 33.3%<\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [P(KK) + P(AK) + P(Kx+)]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King) = [6 + 16 + 176]\/594
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | King<\/b>) = 0.493 = 49.3% <\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [P(QQ) + P(AQ) + P(KQ) + P(Q7o+) + P(Q2s+))]\/Range
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = [6 + 16 + 16 + 60 + 40]\/594
\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tP(Villain | Queen) = 0.232 = 23.2%<\/b><\/p>\n

\t\t\tWe see that the probability that our opponent holds an ace decreases if
\n\t\t\tthey have a large ATS value. Therefore we cannot easily decide on the
\n\t\t\tflop if they have hit and will not get paid by smaller aces. Therefore
\n\t\t\tit is better to push pre-flop because our opponent will likely fold.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tRemarks: <\/b>Many
\n\t\t\topponents would rather raise suited connectors than K2. Though this
\n\t\t\tchanges the probability that villain holds an ace, there are very few
\n\t\t\topponents who would call an all-in with 54s.<\/p>\n

\t\t\tWe can use
\n\t\t\tthe same techniques for playing a tight stealraiser with ATS between 20
\n\t\t\tand 25 against a loose raiser who raises from MP 20%-25% of the time.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h1>\n

Through
\n\t\t\tthe use of PT&PA we receive very useful information about our
\n\t\t\topponent in different situations which enable us to find good spots to
\n\t\t\tsteal some chips.<\/p><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The attempt to steal value of an opponent can provide valuable information regarding how to proceed in steal situations. 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