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Introduction

Floating is a course of play whereby, in a raised pot, one calls the continuation bet of the pre-flop raiser, with the intention of taking the pot away from them on the turn with a bluff. The move can take place both in and out of position, but it is substantially easier to pull off in position. This article discusses the mathematical background behind the move and highlights situations in which it may be used.

The expected value of the float in position

Float Equity without a draw

Example:
NL \$2/\$4

Stacks:
MP (\$460)
Hero (\$395)

Preflop: Hero is BU with 7 , 8
1 fold, MP raises to \$12, Co calls \$12, Hero calls \$12, 2 fold.

Flop: (\$42) 2, 6, K (3 players)
MP bets \$32, CO folds, Hero calls \$32.

Turn: (\$106) J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets \$70, ...

We call the raise with position on the pre-flop aggressor. This results in a continuation bet on the flop. At this moment in time, we cannot say whether or not this means anything. The purpose of our flop-call here is to steal the pot from our opponent if he shows weakness on the turn. In order to compute the expectancy value, we proceed on the following assumptions:

• Against a further bet on the turn, we will fold.
• If our opponent plays check/call on the turn, we will then give up on the river.
• Against a check/raise on the turn, we will likewise give up the hand.
• We will not make a hand on the turn with which it is worth continuing to play.

EV = P(Turncheck) * {P(Fold) * [Pot(Turn) - Call(Flop)] - [1 - P(Fold)] * [Bet(Turn) + Call(Flop)]} - [1 - P(Turncheck)] * Call(Flop)

In this equation we have two unknown quantities. First, the probability that our opponent will check on the turn, and also the probability he will give up the hand to a raise. The following diagram shows the equity against the probability of folding at the turn for different probabilities that our opponent will check the turn.

That's not the entire article...

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#1 marian0080, 29 Feb 08 14:27

mmm

#2 styc0, 15 Apr 08 18:35

f

#3 vivicom, 29 May 08 23:35

ddfsdfdfsdf

#4 roswellx, 16 Aug 09 08:46

cool... I'll start to implement floating to my game. Thanks for the great article.

#5 tac3znarf, 05 Oct 09 05:56

cool, I will try to use this in my games.

#6 Tim64, 07 Sep 10 16:55

ticked.

#7 peche025, 30 Sep 10 21:32

One of the best articles IMO

#8 freespirit47, 25 Dec 10 16:15

good article, thank you!