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Heads-up on the Flop OOP: C/C Flop without Initiative - without Showdownvalue
In this article
- at least 4.5 outs if the opponent always bets the turn
- at least 3.73 outs if the opponent never bets the turn
- in reality: Nearly always go to the turn if you have 4 outs or more!
The line C/C with no pair and no showdown value (SD-Value) will seem strange at first, considering that you want to play draws aggressively to make better hands fold.
Take the following hand, in which you defend your big blind against a 40% range from the button:
opponent's open raise range on the button: (ca. 40%) 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q6s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K7o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o
Here the standard move would be to C/R the Flop. You only have a gutshot plus two potential live cards, but you may be able to push the button off A high, K high, Q high J high or even a small pocket pair.
But what if you don't have any fold equity? Let's assume that your opponent will never fold a better hand. In this case you would be completely dependant on your outs.
How do you decide whether you can continue playing your hand profitably? You shouldn't base this decision on the equity on the flop, as your hand has no showdown value. You should instead base it on the possibility of improving on the turn or river.
At this point we need to determine whether you should continue with your hand on the flop. You're getting pot odds of 5.5 to 1 on a bet from the button. If you ignore the implied odds and play strictly by odds and outs, then for C/C flop you need 1/6.5 * 47 Outs = 7.2 Outs. However, 7.2 is too high, seeing as you ...
- ... definitely have implied odds, especially as you have a gutshot, which would give you the 2nd nuts.
- .. could also get a free card, in which case you could see the river for free.
To get further insight, let's look at the two extreme scenarios:
- The opponent ALWAYS bets the turn.
- The opponent NEVER bets the turn.
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